There’s a lot of stuff out there that purports to be economic, monetary, and liquidity analysis. I don’t read other people’s stuff. There’s no point. Markets don’t anticipate and they don’t discount the future. Anyone who successfully anticipates a big change in the market more often than not is just lucky. Very few people do it more than once. They become very famous, often living on past laurels, not repeating their success, but not needing to.
It’s not a chess game. Chess involves planning. Markets involve random, usually unknowable human responses to the attempts of policy makers to direct and channel what is inherently chaos. If you try to anticipate, well, they’re gonna make this move, and that will be the response and then they’ll make that move and then this will be the next response… I mean, come on. Get real.
Follow the data. Don’t overthink, and don’t make shit up and you’ll be fine.
So what if you miss a major turn by 3 weeks. You won’t be betting wrong and losing money for 6 months or a couple of years before. More money is lost by being too early than by being a little late.
When I do macro liquidity analysis, all I want to do, and can do, is try to correctly identify the existing trend or trends, and try to notice when they are changing. If we are paying attention, then we’ll see the signs of change as they begin to crop up. So you won’t be too late.
I see signs of it now in the latest data. It’s early, but change is coming. Modestly Hedged Dealers, Record Short Hedge Funds Suggest Disaster Ahead But the most important fact is that liquidity analysis merely sets the context. Knowing context is what helps us to better understand and act on the technical charts in the right direction at the right time.
Meanwhile, we focus here on the day to day. The ES 24 hour S&P fuguetures are our muse. They’re due for 3 and 5 day cycle highs this morning. But we can’t rule out an extension. Another triangle is forming that should signal what comes next. The top line falls from 4164 to 4161 today. The lower line rises from 4145 to 4161. Break either of those lines, and we have a signal as to what’s likely for the next really big move. I mean, could be as much as 3 or 4 points.
In other words, why expect follow through now, when we haven’t had any since time immemorial? OK, ok, if they clear 4155 with momo, then there’s a conventional measured move target of 4205. To get there, they’d need to clear trend resistance at 4163, and the pivot high of 4166.
4161 is the Dick Trickle Memorial Point, and it’s due at the end of regular trading in New York. Would be a fitting end to the day. Non Functional GPS Market
Meanwhile the 10 year Treasury yield marches toward its measured move target of 3.92, which is about where it would also run into trend resistance. Hell! Why stop there? Modestly Hedged Dealers, Record Short Hedge Funds Suggest Disaster Ahead
Meanwhile, gold, the standard bearer of the eternal flame of unrequited love has come down to a big trend sport line. Will this be the day it finally says yes, it will marry you? Let’s see. Gold’s Immaculate Correction
For moron the markets, see:
- Modestly Hedged Dealers, Record Short Hedge Funds Suggest Disaster AheadMay 25, 2023
- Non Functional GPS Market May 22, 2023
- Swing Trade Chart Picks – Let’s Get Ready to Rumble May 18, 2023
- Gold’s Immaculate Correction May 19, 2023
- The Most Widely Forecast Economic Disaster In History May 16, 2023
- Weak Real Time Withholding Taxes Set Up a Showdown May 4, 2023
- The Big One is Coming May 3, 2023
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