The current uptrend is now a month old. It’s also been dzackly 6 months since the major trend low last October. That tells us something.
Nothing. OK, if you weren’t long, you was wrong. But from here? For one thing, the trend is still up. The 5 day cycle projection is 4166. And 4166 is the zackly 50% retracement of the decline from January to October 2022, of blessed memory.
It was already exceeded once by a few percent in the rally of last September to February. What happens on that test, which I am quite certain will happen based on liquidity analysis, will tell us much about the future. Click here for the big picture TA. New recruits have 90 days to follow along risk free.
Below is the 2 hour bars look on the ES 24 hour fuguetures. The uptrend is clear, but it’s notable that the momentum has been piss poor over the last week. I’m skeptical that that means anything. It would, if the market has an hourly close under 4070. Otherwise, no.
In fact, if they break out through 4150, I’d expect momo to break out along with prices. That would be scary. A high base breakout at this point would have a conventional measured move target of 4220. All in one day? Maybe not today, can’t rule it out. Some humongous Treasury bill paydowns are coming next week that will pump cash into the markets.
And the usual 1 hour bar look:
I agree with those who complain that the rally has been weak and narrow. However, that doesn’t change the fact that for the past 6 months most of the money has been made on the long side. Some of us have struggled with that. I say “us” pointedly, because I too have struggled to pick winners over that time. Whether it’s a built in cognitive bias, or something else, I don’t know. But self doubt is part of the game. It’s a constant learning curve because markets are shape shifters, and it feels like that’s getting worse.
Meanwhile, in cryptoworld, SafeTCoin keeps running. It has now surpassed its 9 month cycle projection of 29,500, on its way to the conventional measured move target of the base breakout. That’s around 34k. The 3 month cycle projection is 32k. The top of the uptrend channel today is around 30,800. If that’s cleared, they’ll see 32k in a heartbeat.
At the same time, since the banking crisis erupted back in March, buyers have been very reluctant to pile into the traditional safe haven of Treasuries. All signs pointed toward a big rally there, with lower yields as a result. It hasn’t happened. Liquidity will become even more favorable for a rally in the Treasury market next week. If it doesn’t happen, something terrible lurks in the great behind.
Here’s the chart. Why haven’t yields broken down. That’s the question. Not to be or not to be.
Toobedoobedo. What are the chances?
And gold. Oh my! What if it takes out 2080?
For moron the markets, see:
- Here’s What’s Next Now That Gold Has Reached Its Limit April 10, 2023
- Cycle Indicators Tell How to Play This Rally Now April 10, 2023
- Here’s How We Know That Doom Has Already Arrived April 6, 2023
- Macro Liquidity Says No Way Jerray! April 4, 2023
- How to Play When Fed Changes the Game, Not Just the Rules March 19, 2023
- Systemic Meltdown Under Way As Dead Bodies Finally Start Surfacing March 12, 2023
- Here’s Why There Will Never Be Bull Markets Until This One Thing Happens February 26, 2023
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