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An Even Better Indicator of Housing Deflation

Originally posted at Capitalstool

Here’s an even better real time barometer of housing deflation. The daily data on average mortgage size. That’s obviously tied to the price or appraised value of the house, since LTVs tend to be constant.

The increase since January is a regular seasonal feature. Comparing year to year level, we’re looking at a decline of 8.5%. That’s through this week. Here’s How We Know That Doom Has Already Arrived

source: tradingeconomics.com

Here’s a 5 year chart so that you can see that I am truthing you about the seasonal aspect of the January-April increase.

source: tradingeconomics.com

 

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