The Line Broke, But the Monkey Got Choked 1/3/23

Lee Adler January 3, 2023

6:30 AM Jan 3 – At least, so far this morning, looks like the monkey is getting choked, but let’s look again after the first half hour of regular trading in New York in 3 hours from the time I’m writing this.

Meanwhile, overnight, the Asians and Europeans were optimistic enough to push the ES, 24 hour S&P fugutures to a breakout of the right side of this rather awesome pattern that looks like a huge bottom going back a couple of weeks. But it also might be a consolidation on the way down. Normally, a pattern that looks like this ultimately breaks out topside, but in today’s environment, I wouldn’t want to presume. We won’t know for sure until they actually clear the range one way or the other.

The starting point for the bulls would be 3892. They gotta get through that first. If they do, the breakout would have a conventional measured move target of around 4010-15. If they don’t clear 3892 today, I’ll give my bear friends the benefit of the doubt. However, no clear win for them unless and until the get below the trendline now around 3800, approaching 3810 later today.

For moron the markets, see:

Here’s Where Short Term Signals Either Confirm Bullish Or Else January 2, 2023
Swing Trade Screen Picks – New Year R&R January 3, 2023
Composite Liquidity Still Bearish, No End in Sight December 23, 2022
May Gold Be Merciful Unto Us, Amen December 19, 2022

In addition to the above, I’ll have a gold update tomorrow, followed by a new Liquidity Trader Money Trends report focusing on December tax collections and jobs.

If you’re serious about the underlying forces of supply and demand that drive the markets, join me!

If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam filter.

Share on Facebook

Primary Dealer Leverage and Hedging: 124% Leverage, Net Exposure Flat

Primary Dealers are pulling back from Treasury absorption — not by choice, but by constraint. With inventories falling despite relentless coupon issuance, the data confirms what recent auctions have already hinted: dealers are maxed out.

This report unpacks what the May 21 breakout in yields really signals—and why the next phase of Treasury supply could bring more than just higher rates.

Cycle Model Sell Signals Indicate Market Turning Point

Another Presidential tariff twist triggered a sharp rally in Europe on Memorial Day. So far, it doesn’t change any of the conclusions in this report, which was drafted before the rally. We must become accustomed to moves driven by increasingly frequent external noise, sometimes pro-cyclical and sometimes counter, and fostered by an increasingly thin market. This move appears countercyclical relative to cycles up to 13 weeks, and within a topping process of the 6-month and longer cycles. The resistance levels cited in the report would need to be broken to signal a material change in the short-term outlook.

Primary Dealer Inventory Cutbacks Signal System Stress Ahead of Debt Ceiling Resolution

Primary Dealers are pulling back from Treasury absorption — not by choice, but by constraint. With inventories falling despite relentless coupon issuance, the data confirms what recent auctions have already hinted: dealers are maxed out.

This report unpacks what the May 21 breakout in yields really signals—and why the next phase of Treasury supply could bring more than just higher rates.

Gold Climbs Parabola Hill One More TIme 5/21/25

A massive increase in volatility has repeatedly broken historically normal wave bandwidths, signaling abnormal wave amplitudes as the trend goes parabolic. Trend support around 3295-3300 was seen as critical in the short run. It broke, and then whipsawed. The uptrend is thus still intact. A test of the high looks likely, with more fireworks through the summer. But longer term projections suggest that there’s little upside remaining.

Liquidity Trader Swing Trade Selections and Performance – Five Shorts, Three Longs: Signals Sharpen After the Whiplash

This rally has been a grinder. Since it began, setups have been harder to trust, in a market driven more by headlines than structure. I’ve been too cautious, as short-term waves reversed with near unprecedented ferocity. But the charts are starting to look more normal. This week, I found five shorts I liked and 3 longs. This is still cycle-based with rigorous questioning of setups, while finding more that I’m comfortable adding to the list.