Overnight, the BoJ widened its band for long term government bond yields from 25 to 50 bp. The moved surprised the market. The USD crashed against the yen, and so did the ES, 24 hour S&P futures. Briefly. It was a moment, and then it stopped, and a few hours later, the market was right back to where it left off at the New York close yesterday.
I was awake when the tremor coursed through the world markets, and I read the breathless analcyst commentary. And I thought, jeeze, these poop heads are the same all over the world. Clueless.
So I was not surprised when I re-awakened later this morning to see it all gone.
The rebound has broken a 3 day downtrend channel, confirming that yes Vaginia, we have been in a 5 day cycle up phase since yesterday. That means that unless longer cycles come to the rescue and also turn higher, the down phase directly ahead of us could be a doozy. If it’s not, then we gotta start thinking, go long, old man.
Meanwhile, if this rebound gets a second wind and the ES gets clear of 3830 after the New York open, then we’d be looking at a conventional measured move target of 3870ish. And if it doesn’t, then we roll over, break the low, and head for 3750.
For moron the markets, see:
- The Trend Was the Bears’ Friend December 19, 2022
- Swing Trade Screen Picks – Short Stops Killed but Many More Added December 19, 2022
- May Gold Be Merciful Unto Us, Amen December 19, 2022
- Fed Steadfast But Treasury Throws a Bullish Curve December 14, 2022
- Federal Tax Revenues Are Slowing December 6, 2022
- Fed Policy Will Stay Bearish Until It’s Too Late November 20, 2022
- The Repeal of Rule Number One, Don’t Fight the Fed November 14, 2022
- Bond Market Rally is Technically Valid but Belies the Facts November 12, 2022
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