I have set this hourly chart of the ES, S&P 500 24 hour fuguetures, so that you can see the long term trendline extension from the January top through a couple of peaks on the way down. I’ll give an overview of that, along with big picture implications, in Monday morning’s Technical Trader update. https://liquiditytrader.com/index.php/category/technical-market-timing/ But for now we’re looking at 4122 or so. The 5 day cycle projection also points to around 4120.
The numbers to watch in the premarket are 4080 and 4085. Clearing those should ignite the rocket boosters.
I would add that I think that bears would only have a shot here if they can keep this rally below 4090. 4085 would be better.
Meanwhile, Poowell said that the Fed is going to dial back the rate increases to 50 BP from 75, as if the Fed is “setting rates.” Fact is that over the past 6 weeks the bellwether 13 week bill rate has risen by… drumroll please… 50 basis points. In other words, the Fed is still following the market, not leading it. Note also that neither the 13 week or 4 week bill rates have broken their uptrends.
Market interest rates are not causes. They are effects. They are meters of monetary tightness. There’s no indication in this chart that that tightness is easing. The bull runs in stocks and bonds are swimming upstream.
Bears Beware, Money Managers Are Finally Spending their RRP Slush Fund November 30,2022
For moron the markets, see:
- Bears Beware, Money Managers Are Finally Spending their RRP Slush Fund November 30,2022
- Swing Trade Screen Picks – Read My Lips, No New Longs (A Few More Shorts) November 28, 2022
- Major Inflection Point Here to Determine Whether Bull or Bear November 28, 2022
- Gold and Miners, Pullback Looks OK November 23, 2022
- Fed Policy Will Stay Bearish Until It’s Too Late November 20, 2022
- The Repeal of Rule Number One, Don’t Fight the Fed November 14, 2022
- Bond Market Rally is Technically Valid but Belies the Facts November 12, 2022
- Bad News for the Markets – Not Just Withholding Boomed in October November 3, 2022
- Surge in Withholding Tax Collections in October Indicates Faster Jobs Growth November 2, 2022
- Bear Market Isn’t the Mirror of a Bull October 31, 2022
If you’re serious about the underlying forces of supply and demand that drive the markets, join me!
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