I have been warning about this for months and months. In fact, I started warning about it in August of 2020, and have never stopped.
In recent months, I’ve written:
7/18/22 As we know, the supply conditions are benign until mid August. So if the 10 year yield holds above 2.72 for the next 3 weeks, then I think we can expect an upside breakout after mid August.
9/15/22 The 10 year yield is once again on the verge of another upside breakout. If it clears 3.50, the conventional measured move target of the enormous base pattern would then be 6%. And I don’t think it would take years to get there. It only took two months to go from 1.65 to 3.25, a distance of 1.6%, a 97% increase. A breakout from the current level could ignite a wave of bond liquidation the likes of which we have never seen.
The conditions that led to this have been obvious, not just for months, but for the past two years. It’s not rocket science, it has been obvious if you are paying attention to the right data. Wall Street makes a point of constantly misdirecting you to follow things that are simply irrelevant at best, misleading, or outright lies and subterfuge at worst. Its only job is to keep you feeding at their poisoned trough.
The US Treasury is readying emergency measures, going through the motions of asking its Primary Dealer network whether there’s a problem out there, as if they didn’t know. What a joke. Hey, mofoclowns, look at this.
If you’re serious about trading and investing successfully, then pay attention to the things that matter the most. I promise to keep you focused on them, and make them as obvious as humanly possible.
Meanwhile for you day trading junkies, on this thread we focus on the mundane day to day chart squiggles and of course, whatnot. Where would we be without the whatnot.
So here’s our usual look at the hourly ES, 24 hour S&P futures. As of 6 AM New Yanks time, the 5 day cycle projection looks pointed at 3610. But there’s an obvious sport line at 3635. If that’s broken, it opens a chasm to around 3575. With the pressure the bond market is exerting this morning, I like the bet that stocks will get that far.
- Bears Beware, Treasury Buybacks Will Turn the Markets, Sooner Not Later October 21, 2022
- Swing Trade Screens – Overloaded on the Short Side October 17, 2022
- On the Edge of the Abyss, Can the Market Fly? October 17, 2022
- We Now Know When and Where Gold Will Bottom October 14, 2022
- We Can Now Project When Fed Will Pause, But Not Reverse October 13, 2022
- Look Out For the Real Fallout of Declining Withholding Tax Collections – Part 2 October 6, 2022
- Look Out For the Real Fallout of Declining Withholding Tax Collections October 5, 2022
- Markets Face Catastrophe as Dealers Mitigate Too Little Too Late September 26, 2022
- Fed Speeds Into Dead Man’s Curve, More Black Tuesdays Ahead September 15, 2022
- There Will Be More Black Tuesdays September 14, 2022
If you’re serious about the underlying forces of supply and demand that drive the markets, join me!
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