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When A Breakout Isn’t a Breakout 8/11/22

Well, now would be one example. We see it on the 2 hour bar chart of the ES, 24 hour continuous S&P futures. They are trading at the top of multiple channels and resistance lines in the 4210-20 area.

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That’s not to say that they won’t break out. Maybe, maybe not. Zooming into the hourly chart the 5 day cycle projection only points to 4230, and that was essentially tagged earlier this morning. The 2-3 day cycle projection also points to 4230.

Meanwhile, hourly cycle oscillators and momentum are still bullish, but just barely. A couple of down bars on the hourly would roll them over and allow for the possibility of top formation. Notice I said “possibility.” Building a top would probably take a couple of days. The first step would be to drop below 4210 by noon or 4125 by the close. Until that happens benefit of the doubt goes to the uptrend.

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Meanwhile, yesterday’s BLS announcement of the End of Inflation didn’t trigger much of a reaction in the bond market.

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I think we know why.

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