That’s right, today is the day we’ll face the music, my bear friends. Although I suspect that in the end, we’ll be clapping and singing a song. Today, we listen.
Over the past two days while the market was closed in the US, the 24 hour ES S&P 500 fuguetures have emerged from a small but potentially powerful base. As of 5 AM ET, they are threatening to break important resistance at 3750. If successful, they should be able to move quickly to 3790, where the bears will join the battle in full force, methinks.
On the other hand, if they don’t clear 3750, then look for a pullback to the low around 3636.
Things would get very interesting if that broke.
Meanwhile, BTC is leading the way, but only because it trades 24/7. It has emerged from a base with a 5 day cycle projection of 22,222.22222. OK, I zagerate. 😊 But the projection is in that range, give or take a few hunnert.
Also the base pattern breakout has a conventional measured move target of around 24,000. But if it clears 21,400, that would imply 25,000, etc. etc. etc. This is the 2 hour bar chart with the ES overlaid. As you can see, they have moved virtually in lockstep for the whole month of June. If BTC coughs it up and drops back below 20k, the bears will be back in charge, both for Crapto, and stonks.
But for now, this looks bullish.
The move is less impressive on the daily chart, where it rebounded from trend support. Trend resistance may show up around 23k today. If they clear that, the next target would be 25k over the next couple of days. If they don’t clear 23k, then you can see where it’s headed, maybe sooner, rather than later.
Meanwhile, the 10 year Treasury yield had what the Wall Street shill crowd called a record pullback. But when we look at a weekly chart, it does not look so for mee dob, as we say here in le fronsay.
In fact, it is still very much threatening to break out of this massive base pattern, 11 years in the making. Its conventional measured move target would be 6%.
It wasn’t hard to see this major turn take shape. I’ve been warning Liquidity Trader subscribers to stay the hell away from bonds, and sell em if you got em, since August 2020.
You too can follow along right here. I will show you and tell you exactly how the major forces of macro liquidity move not just the bond market, but stocks as well. Liquidity analysis sets the context for technical analysis. It helps us to narrow the focus of our chart reading to the outcomes that are most likely, given the circumstances.
To understand the big picture, check out the following:
- Swing Trade Screens – Tank Gawt We’re Not a Long-Only Entity, Poor Bastids June 20, 2022
- Watch Out For a V Bottom June 19, 2022
- Gold Stares Into the Abyss and Doesn’t Like What It Sees June 14, 2022
- Dealers Assume the Position, as 75 BPs Coming Wednesday June 13, 2022
- The US Economy, Including Jobs, Collapsed in May June 2, 2022
- Quantitative Tightening is Here, and the Effect Will Be Devastating June 1, 2022
If you’re serious about the underlying forces of supply and demand that drive the markets, join me!
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