T-bill rates continue to show the Fed that it must raise the Fed Funds rate 100 bp if it wants to keep pace with the reality of the market.
15 hours ago, Jorma said:So why exactly are $2.2TN sitting in RPP’s at .5% when 90 Day bills are at 1.74? Now personally I think the USA may be a dodgy proposition in coming years but 90 days?
RRPs are overnight money. MMFs have their very short term (VST) T-bills called away. They turn that cash over to the Fed for their next day and VST money management needs. At the same time, banks and dealers are short of cash. The value of their highly leveraged holdings are collapsing.
They are being forced to liquidate paper across the maturity and quality spectrums, including longer dated bills, as they get collateral calls. They can’t bid on the longer duration bills remaining in the market.
Meanwhile, the 5 day cycle in the ES 24 hour S&P fuguetures has been in an up phase since Monday evening. That does not bode bullish for what happens after 2 PM today.
Over on Crypton- Jor El is not doing well. As you know, the long term measured move target is 5000 below zero which Stoolie Jon Law explained admirably.
22 hours ago, JonLaw said:5000 below zero is its actual intrinsic value. That’s because BTC is the only fake money that takes a ton of energy to maintain. It’s as though instead of Monopoly having paper money, it had battery powered electric money that you had to keep plugged all the time or the denominations disappeared.
Mining bitcoin is like mining gold, except that instead of ending up with gold, you end up with a higher electric bill.
On the daily chart, serious technical analysis results in a 1 year cycle projection of 12,000.
Meanwhile meanwhile, the ECB is already holding an emergency meeting. Makes me wonder if the Fed won’t be forced to reverse course and re-start QE with a massive injection sooner than I thought.
Dealers Assume the Position, as 75 100 BPs Coming Wednesday
All of which leads us to the point. If you want to stay on top of the big picture, with not only clear analysis that has been mostly right for the past 22 years, but with strategic and tactical suggestions, and actual trading ideas, check out this list of summary pieces over at Liquidity Trader. 90 day risk free trial for new recruits!
- Gold Stares Into the Abyss and Doesn’t Like What It Sees June 14, 2022
- Dealers Assume the Position, as 75 BPs Coming Wednesday June 13, 2022
- Swing Trade Screens – Yes, More Shorts But There Are Limits, You Know June 13, 2022
- Remain Calm, All Is Hell June 13, 2022
- The US Economy, Including Jobs, Collapsed in May June 2, 2022
- Quantitative Tightening is Here, and the Effect Will Be Devastating June 1, 2022
If you’re serious about the underlying forces of supply and demand that drive the markets, join me!
If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam filter.
