Posted at 4:40 AM ET US
Meanwhile, back at the stock market at 4 AM in New York, 10 AM in Paris, and 9 AM in London, it’s dead cat reaction time. At 8:45 AM ET yesterday, I was able to project a 5 day cycle projection of 3760, on the ES 24 hour continuous S&P fuguetures, hourly chart. The market briefly dipped to 3734, but mostly hung around that 3760 area all day. Now, no surprise, it short covering time.
I would say that the bulls are buying, but really no one is bullish at the moment and rightly so. And anyone who is, does not have the right to be taken seriously.
Now that I’ve said that, fasten your seat belts and prepare for a face ripping short squeeze.
But seriously folks, the market must first prove that it has the right stuff. To do that, it would need to be above 3800 when New Yak opens, or soon after. Then there’d be room to run, and the momo to push it to the next resistance level around 3860.
But if they can’t clear 3800, it’s more likely that the crash will accelerate, with an initial target of 3600. And remember that conventional measured move target of the breakdown. 3450
A 10% crash in a day? I’ll have to check the circuit breaker rules.
Meanwhile, over on Crypton, the Cryptonite decline is in the midst of a V rally to resistance. The overnight low was just below 21,900, which is only down 10,000 from a couple of days ago. Nothing to see here. In fact, they need to get the Crapto SHTC back above 23,400 or another leg down like yesterday’s is coming. Here’s the hourly.
As I am fond of pointing out, the long term conventional measured move target for BTC is negative 5000. That’s right. 5000 below zero.
In the short run, the daily chart shows a couple lines of sport around 20,600 that should be good for a bounce. Round number sport should also kick in at 20,000. If a rally doesn’t materialize, or quickly fizzles, the next target, very quickly, would be the 17-18k range.
Here’s the long term view, weekly.
Now, I have been warning for months and months that the bond market was in a massive bear market with no end in sight. I’ve published projections of 3.30 to 3.50 on the 10 year yield for many many months. I’ve suggested that every rally in the bond market should be sold. I update various aspects of the monetary and fiscal impacts on liquidity and their impacts on the bond and stock markets 4-5 times a month at Liquidity Trader.
So yesterday, the Treasuries hit the bullseye. The Fed knows, and every bond trader who knows anything knows, that they need to get the 10 year back under 3.26 by Friday, or the world ends. Just think. You can say that that you were there, when it happened.
Of course, there won’t be anyone to tell.
Dealers Assume the Position, as 75 100 BPs Coming Wednesday
As for gold, O ye of little faith, take heart. I’m working on a report to be posted in Gold Trader later this morning. Meanwhile, the long term accumulation pattern persists.
Meanwhile, here’s the good recent stuff.
All of which leads us to the point. If you want to stay on top of the big picture, with not only clear analysis that has been mostly right for the past 22 years, but with strategic and tactical suggestions, and actual trading ideas, check out this list of summary pieces over at Liquidity Trader. 90 day risk free trial for new recruits!
- Gold Stares Into the Abyss and Doesn’t Like What It Sees June 14, 2022
- Swing Trade Screens – Yes, More Shorts But There Are Limits, You Know June 13, 2022
- Remain Calm, All Is Hell June 13, 2022
- Swing Trade Screens – Dipping A Short Toe Before the Next Big Wave June 6, 2022
- Here’s Why It’s Too Soon to Go Short Again (Mostly)June 6, 2022
- The US Economy, Including Jobs, Collapsed in May June 2, 2022
- Quantitative Tightening is Here, and the Effect Will Be Devastating June 1, 2022
If you’re serious about the underlying forces of supply and demand that drive the markets, join me!
If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam filter.
