The hourly ES 24 hour S&P fugutures chart made a picture perfect bottom over 5 days through yesterday, and then proceeded to rally, as we might expect. But the rally is punk. It’s stuck in the mud. It needs to clear 3950, or else consider it dead!
What are the odds? They’re actually pretty good. They’ve managed to eke out a couple of fractional new highs yesterday and overnight, and that’s usually a good tipoff that an upside move is coming. That said, that worked great in the bull market, and we’re not in a bull market any more Dorothy.
But if they clear 3950, the conventional measured move price target on the hourly breakout would be around 4040-4045. That wouldn’t break the bigger downtrend, and would be a good stopping point.
To make a convincing case for resuming the decline, then we would probably need to break 3925 at least in the early going in NY trading. Failing that, the bulls and short covering chicken bears will drive the action.
For the big picture:
- Gold Miners Make Short Term Bottom, But Wait, There’s More! May 17, 2022
- Buys Beat Shorts Again in This Week’s Swing Trade Screens May 16, 2022
- Market Rebound Still Leaves Crash Risk Intact May 16, 2022
- Dealer Positions Show It’s Not Getting Better and It Should Get Worse May 15, 2022
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