Baron Rothschild famously said, Buy when there’s blood in the streets after the Battle of Waterloo. But few seem to be taking that advice this morning. Perhaps it’s because this war has only just begun, and there’s a question whether any of us will even survive. In which case, it won’t matter whether you are long, short, or in cash.
And so we sit and watch in awestruck horror, and in our way, pray for peace and the victory of good over evil. There are no assurances.
Meanwhile, the addicted among us will continue to trade, and I will continue to post my observation on those lines here.
A 2-3 day cycle projection of 4245 was exceeded overnight on the ES, S&P futures. But there’s no sign of an upturn yet in this look at the 30 minute bars. Cycle oscillators are flatlining in deeply negative territory, a sign of trending. They would need to get back above zero to confirm an upside reversal even for the 2-3 day cycle, let along anything bigger.
Meanwhile, the 5 day cycle projection points to around 4200-4210. The initial measured move price target of this hourly top pattern breakdown is around 4185. With this mornings weakness, a second neckline has been broken, with an implied target of 4125. There’s a multiple downtrend line support convergence at 4135 at the end of regular trading hours today that is another possible price magnet for today if the market breaks 4225.
Below is the hourly bar chart. To signal an upside reversal of the 5 day cycle, the ES would need to be above trend resistance at 4265 as of the New York open. It would need to be above 4305 at the end of the day to signal that such a turn would be any more than a consolidation in this downtrend.
On the other hand, a drop below 4233 should trigger downside acceleration. Below 4165 would suggest a possible crash.
Meanwhile, the big picture:
Fewer Picks Remain But Still 100% Short, With Gains
Why I Don’t Care that Short Term Indicators Are Bullish
Withholding Tax Surge in February was All Inflation
Gold Consolidates, More Upside Ahead
Liquidity With Eyes Glued to Ukraine
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