Can you see it? I have zoomed out to two hour bars for to help you. As of 2:30 AM in New York.
Whenever this pattern has appeared in the past, such as in February 1973, the outcome has always been.
Now let’s take a look at the usual one hour bars.
A 5 day cycle low has failed to get off the ground. Now, class, what can happen when bottoms fail at the outset? You know the answer, come on. That’s right, the market can crash. It doesn’t mean that it will. We can always get a false break then a vicious whipsaw. But it does raise the odds from highly unlikely to somewhat likely.
For now major support is around 4275-80, and the 5 day cycle projection is only 4315-4295. If they do take out 4275, then the measured move implication would be 3860. But no worries. I think that it would take more than one day to get there.
For the big technical picture see:
Beware! The Market Has Followed My Script
Meanwhile, it looks like the yield on the 10 year Treasury has put in a short term top. But actually, it needs to break 1.91 to be mildly confirmed. And it needs to break the trend in the 1.85 area to be more than just a minor pullback. Which of course, it isn’t.
Fed Gets the Inflation It Wanted, But Wait There’s More!
Meanwhile, the buttcoin (BTC) hasn’t broken its bearish trend yet either. It needs to clear 44k to break the downtrend, and 46k to confirm an uptrend.
Meanwhile, my gamble to wait to buy the geuro seems to have been a good one. It’s taking a bead on 1.11. At that point I might buy some, but wait and see on the balance. Because if it breaks 1.11, it’s going much lower. My US doodahs will appreciate even further against the geuros.
Currency pairs are all about relative monetary tightness. You know. My central bank is tighter than your central bank. Nyahnyah, nyahnyahnyah!
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