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Now That Everyone is Bearish On Crypto

I thought it would be a good time for a little TA.

The downdraft has almost reached its 6 and 9 month cycle projections of 31,000. It decisively broke its 200 day MA. It broke down from a head and shoulders top, with a conventional measured move target of 34,000. It broke that. It is bouncing off the bottom of a downtrend channel. Cycle oscillators are in positive divergences.

Bitcoin Daily Chart

Click to enlarge

All in all, this has the makings of a classic bottom. And there’s nothing more bullish than a head and shoulders top breakdown that doesn’t follow through. So there’s a chance that a really big rally could come from this setup.

OTOH, there’s likely to be a ton of resistance around 42,000-43.000. And one of the main raisons-d’etre for BTC’s popularity was the ability to hide criminal gains. Well, not so much anymore. The FBI almost never gets their man, but in this case they did, proving that BTCs anonymity maybe isn’t what it’s cracked up to be.

The long term story will be told if and when 42-43 k is tested. If it rolls over from there, or worse, doesn’t get there, the next downleg will make this one look like child’s play.

Stay tuned.


Meanwhile, on the hourly chart, BTC will hit resistance around 35,250 this morning.


Lee Adler

I’ve been publishing The Wall Street Examiner and its predecessor since October 2000. I also publish, and was lead analyst for Sure Money Investor, of blessed memory. I developed David Stockman's Contra Corner for Mr. Stockman. I’ve had a wide variety of finance related jobs since 1972, including a stint on Wall Street in both sales, analytical, and trading capacities. Prior to starting the Wall Street Examiner I was a commercial real estate appraiser in Florida for 15 years. I was considered an expert in the analysis of failed properties that ended up in the hands of bank REO divisions, the FDIC, and the RTC. Remember those guys? I also worked in the residential mortgage and real estate businesses in parts of the 1970s and 80s. I have been charting stocks and markets and doing analytical work since I was a teenager. I'm not some Ivory Tower academic, Wall Street guy. My perspective comes from having my boots on the ground and in the trenches, as a real estate broker, mortgage broker, trader, account rep, and analyst. I've watched most of the games these Wall Street wiseguys play from right up close. I know the drill from my 55 years of paying attention. And I'm happy to share that experience with you, right here. 

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