Live, at 4 AM in New York, it’s Tuesday Morning. What’s on sale this week? This morning, everything.
The ES fucutures fell just a bit outside of the end of day 5 day cycle projection of 3975. The longer moving average that I use to run those forecasts made a right turn shortly after the close yesterday. Oh well. These things do happen.
But, in the immortal words of Blutarsky, it ain’t over till it’s over. At the moment the ES has fallen to an ancient support line converging with a couple of downtrending support lines at 3867. If this holds, no doubt we’ll see yesterday’s high tested.
If they break this, then the next targets would be support levels aaround 3856, and 3844. 3850 would be a 50% retracement of yesterday’s rally. If they break that, there’s a good chance of testing the low, or worse.
I’m leaning toward a bullish resolution because of the thing with the Treasury pumping $55 billion into the market today and Thursday. There may be more where that came from with the new weekly T-bill announcement coming out later this morning. I’ll keep an eye on that for you.
As I wrote last night:
12 hours ago, DrStool said:
Reminder- $55 billion in T-bill paydowns hit tomorrow and Thursday. Market successfully handled the settlement of $139 billion in new coupon paper today. The pressure from that came last week. The T-bill paydowns clearly have helped ameliorate, with excess cash going to… where else! Stonks!
Janet, like Sal Minichin before her, is a genius.
Much respect to Madam Yellen, who does not get credit for the good things she tried to do when she was Fed chair. We love to criticize her, but to this day, she’s the only modern Fed chair to try to, and actually did, shrink the Fed’s balance sheet. As a famous bard once said, “The evil that men do lives on. The good is oft interred with their bones.”
Yellen’s was an effort doomed to fail. Bernanke, that vicious monster responsible for the financial mass murder of millions of US elderly savers, set out to trap future Fed chairs by making QE impossible to reverse.
He succeeded. The financial system is now completely dependent of Fed QE life support. It can never be removed, and probably can only be reduced modestly when the US economy booms enough to cut the deficit and reduce debt issuance.
We’ve seen some social fallout from permanent QE and the moral hazard and ever widening wealth gap it promotes, but we have yet to pay the ultimate price. That’s coming.
As I complete this message of love, forgiveness, and compassion for you, and my millions of followers (ok, dozens), I’ll leave with a zoomed in 30 minute bar chart of this morning’s action.
We see a holding action at the sport level I mentioned above. Is this a tag and go? My guess is yes, because check out the channel I just noticed! Meanwhile, New York is still asleep. Some institutional guys will have Treasury cash coming in today, and you know how money burns a hole in their pockets. They’ll wake up, hit their screens, and be in the mood to spend.
This is a syndicated post, which originally appeared at Stool Pigeons Wire at Capitalstool.com. View original post.
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Meanwhile, here’s some free stuff I’ve written about this unfolding catastrophe.
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