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As we have entered the second year of the COVID-19 pandemic, there’s a growing transatlantic divide in public mood. While the finish line appears to be in sight for the United States, where a rapid vaccine rollout and falling case numbers have sparked a wave of optimism, large parts of Europe are facing another type of wave – a third wave of COVID-19 infections.
As the following chart shows, the seven-day average of new infections in the United States has fallen to the lowest level since mid-October in recent weeks, after peaking at levels five times as high as recently as mid-January. Meanwhile, many European countries are seeing the opposite trend, as new variants of SARS-CoV-2, most importantly the more infectious B.1.1.7 variant, have led to a reversal in infection activity, which is now rising again despite large parts of the continent still being on at least partial lockdown. It appears that the measures that helped contain the spread of the original virus aren’t sufficient to keep the new variants in check, while public pressure to reopen schools, childcare facilities and businesses is making it even harder for politicians to make what many experts consider the right call: tightening restrictions instead of loosening up.
What makes matters worse is the fact that the vaccine rollout across the European Union is going much slower than many had hoped. Take Germany for example: an economic powerhouse within the EU, the country currently vaccinates at a rate of around 250,000 people per day. Meanwhile the U.S. averages nearly 2.5 million administered doses per day – a difference that cannot be explained with supply issues caused by the EU’s flawed procurement strategy alone.
So while Americans have reason to believe that the worst will be over by summer this year, the mood across the Atlantic is considerably gloomier as a fatigued public is facing a third wave of infections coupled with sluggish vaccination progress.
This chart shows the seven-day rolling average of newly confirmed COVID-19 cases in the U.S. and the European Union.
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