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New Target On 10 Year Treasury Yield Is BFN

In the department of give us this day, our daily bread, here’s an update on the current short term projection for the 10 year Treasury yield.


Which of course means that bond prices will fall another couple percent, resulting in more collateral calls from repo lenders. Death by a thousand cuts (in price) for dealers.

Now we can readily see that 1.60 is resistance. If they clear that, then 1.80 is a piece of cake. If they don’t clear it, it will consolidate for a while. Maybe even pull back. But the Law of Supply says that price  will ultimately fall, with the mirror being yield rises.

And as we know, that while everyone looks in the mirror, the yield that everyone sees and is focused on is not the problem. Price is the problem.  


Lee Adler

I’ve been publishing The Wall Street Examiner and its predecessor since October 2000. I also publish, and was lead analyst for Sure Money Investor, of blessed memory. I developed David Stockman's Contra Corner for Mr. Stockman. I’ve had a wide variety of finance related jobs since 1972, including a stint on Wall Street in both sales, analytical, and trading capacities. Prior to starting the Wall Street Examiner I was a commercial real estate appraiser in Florida for 15 years. I was considered an expert in the analysis of failed properties that ended up in the hands of bank REO divisions, the FDIC, and the RTC. Remember those guys? I also worked in the residential mortgage and real estate businesses in parts of the 1970s and 80s. I have been charting stocks and markets and doing analytical work since I was a teenager. I'm not some Ivory Tower academic, Wall Street guy. My perspective comes from having my boots on the ground and in the trenches, as a real estate broker, mortgage broker, trader, account rep, and analyst. I've watched most of the games these Wall Street wiseguys play from right up close. I know the drill from my 55 years of paying attention. And I'm happy to share that experience with you, right here. 

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