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How’s Your Buttcoin Today 3/5/21

They say it’s a private currency. I’m not sure I’d call a speculative store of imaginary value backed by nothing, that swings 10% in value on a given day a currency. I mean, what percentage of world commerce is carried out in Bitcoin or other cryptos today versus 2 years ago?

Right. Not much.

But these cryptos do seem to obey the precepts of technical analysis. In fact, they do so even better than stocks, or commodities, or almost anything. Which indeed makes them interesting trading vehicles, if you believe you can readily access actual government currency when you need it.

So here’s a longer term view from a weekly chart with a log scale for perspective. Long term cycle projections point to a target of 55-60,000. Done. The oscillators at the bottom of the chart measure Percentage momentum, True Strength of Trend, and another percentage price change measure.

Click to engorge

The first indicator shows that the rate of advance is much slower in this bull phase than 2016-18. The second indicator shows that this trend is as advanced as the previous bull phase was at its peak. Ditto for the third indicator.

Take whatever conclusion from this that seems obvious to you. And consider that if this does roll over, major support is down around 9000. Not much risk there, huh?

Meanwhile Bitcoin’s promoters are now saying it’s going to a million.



Lee Adler

I’ve been publishing The Wall Street Examiner and its predecessor since October 2000. I also publish, and was lead analyst for Sure Money Investor, of blessed memory. I developed David Stockman's Contra Corner for Mr. Stockman. I’ve had a wide variety of finance related jobs since 1972, including a stint on Wall Street in both sales, analytical, and trading capacities. Prior to starting the Wall Street Examiner I was a commercial real estate appraiser in Florida for 15 years. I was considered an expert in the analysis of failed properties that ended up in the hands of bank REO divisions, the FDIC, and the RTC. Remember those guys? I also worked in the residential mortgage and real estate businesses in parts of the 1970s and 80s. I have been charting stocks and markets and doing analytical work since I was a teenager. I'm not some Ivory Tower academic, Wall Street guy. My perspective comes from having my boots on the ground and in the trenches, as a real estate broker, mortgage broker, trader, account rep, and analyst. I've watched most of the games these Wall Street wiseguys play from right up close. I know the drill from my 55 years of paying attention. And I'm happy to share that experience with you, right here. 

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