Asia was just fine with whatever Lord Jaysus said yesterday. I didn’t watch his dog and pony show but I understand that he promised steady as she goes until time immemorial. And apparently he did say, as I expected, “All is well, remain calm,” in ref to the Treasury market. As we know, that’s a lie, and the truth will soon out. The Fed will likely resort to emergency infinite QE, that will become permanent, but they won’t admit it, and they probably won’t call it yield control, yet.

Anyway, traders in Asia pushed the ES fucutures to another new high during their trading day, overnight in New Yawk.

When European traders got to their desks this morning it was another story. We’re only 5 hours ahead here now because we haven’t started daylight savings time, so when European markets opened at 4 AM in NY, it was straight down. The fucutures have now fallen to apparent trend support.

Over the past few weeks, if we find the right trendline, we have a good idea where the market is going to bounce or get smacked. But it’s always about probabilities, and the contingency of what to do if the probable doesn’t happen.

So this thing should “probably” bounce here. If it does, then we start looking to see if it can get through 3950 and 3960. Rollovers at either of those levels would suggest that a break of support on the next pullback becomes more likely. Clearing those levels suggests that we go back to 3977 where it peaked overnight.

If 3940 doesn’t hold, then we lookto to the next lines below on the chart, down to yesterday’s low. But more significantly, it would break a trend that’s been in place since the beginning of March. and it would raise the potential that the slightly uptilted trading range since March 11 was part of a top formation.

I’m a little concerned about this pullback because I went out yesterday with 4 longs in my trading account. Not to worry. It’s only about 12% of my buying power. I had much larger long positions overnight the previous two sessions, and I managed to cope with those. After getting into a deep hole in the early going yesterday, I traded my ass off and ended up making $25 by the close.

I’m writing the the NLRB to complain that my boss isn’t paying me minimum wage.

I haven’t looked yet, but I assume that the positions I have now are a bit under water at current levels. If they’ve gapped my sell triggers, I need to decide whether to sell on the open, or just cancel the orders, and replace them with stops just below the next sport levels.

Opening gaps are a constant problem these days, and require the human to override the machine with a bit of thought about where price is relative to sport. I like to call them sport levels, because trading is really just a game. And if this is the start of a bear market, then as you know, there’s no such thing as “support.”

I’m running the screens for my trading hot list selection. I will post the raw data for you so that you can take a look at these in your own charts and decide if you want to pick a few of your own. I encourage you to converse about your own thoughts on any of this.

This is a syndicated post, which originally appeared at Stool Pigeons Wire at Capitalstool.com. View original post.

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