4:00 AM ET
The Dow loves 30,000 and the S&P loves 3600. Liquidity will be bearish until Thursday. And I’m working on a Technical Trader update that will lay out a trading strategy and chart picks for this week and beyond. I’ll post that by 5 AM NY time.
The bears got loose in Asia overnight, but the bulls came running when Europe opened at 9 AM here 3 AM in NY. There was a channel break, but a longer support line from a couple weeks ago held.
A 5 day cycle projection of 3608 was done. TIme factors suggest an upturn due in that cycle but the 2-3 day cycle looks juxtaposed, which is a recipe for churning and burning.
The 3605-3650 range should rule. If the rebound stops at 3630, then bears have a shot at a little breakdown later today. If they get through 3630, then I’d look for 3650.
Hourly indicators are choppy and inconclusive as you’d expect.
Follow my intraday snark and add your own!
In view of the liquidity outlook, I’m on the lookout for a support test in the first half of the week. Pre market futures suggest that the market is on track for that. The futures tested the 3600 area in the pre market.
The market maintained a shallow uptrend last week. The S&P stayed in the upper half of a weak uptrend channel. The channel has a slope of +4 PPD. The centerline will start the week at around 3623 and rises to approximately 3643 on Friday. That line is initial support. A couple of old intermediate channel lines around 3610 also mark potential support. The bottom of the short term channel starts the week around 3560 and rises to 3600.
This report illustrates where the cycle indicators show the market to be headed.
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I’m adding 5 new picks conditioned on opening within the price bracket at the time specified on the table. 4 of those picks are longs, and 1 is a short. If all 5 picks meet their entry conditions, it will leave us with 16 open picks, of which all but one will be buys. That’s extraordinary and, may I say, scary.
The list showed an average gain of 4.8% with an average holding period of 11 calendar days last week. That was despite getting stopped out of 4 new picks on the short side almost instantly, with losses ranging from 2.1% to 9.2%. That was offset by solid performances from the winners, all on the long side.
Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. These reports are for informational purposes for experienced investors and traders.
