Updating data on pandemic development through 07/10/2020 for the U.S. and EU27:
- The EU27 are now experiencing a second wave of infections, while the U.S. new infections rate has moderated off the prior peaks, although moderation is relatively weak and daily cases are highly volatile.
- As the result, in the last 10 days, EU27 new case numbers have surpassed the U.S. on 4 occasions and deaths on 2 occasions. Over the last 30 days, numbers of new cases in the EU27 exceeded those in the U.S. over 9 days, while numbers of daily deaths were higher in the EU27 on four occasions.
Daily averages for each month of the pandemic are summarized in the table below, while daily counts with 7 days average are shown in the charts:
- The U.S. has a vastly higher death rate per 1 million population than the EU27 rate: current death rate per 1 million of population in the U.S. is 642.5; and current death rate per 1 million of population in the EU27 is 335.2
- Put differently, current U.S. death rate per capita is 92 percent above that for the EU27.
- Overall counts of deaths in the U.S. remain above the EU27, since July 12. Current excess gap is at +62,928.
- Adjusted for population differences, the U.S. has 100,517 more deaths than the EU27. Adjusted for later onset of the pandemic in the U.S., America’s death toll from COVID19 to-date is 114,621 higher than that of the EU27.
- The 7-day moving averages of new cases in the EU27 and the U.S. are now almost identical. The EU27 is already in the second wave of the pandemic, but the U.S. is showing signs of the second wave starting, with a significant uptick in the 7-days average since September 12 lows.
- Both, the EU27 and the U.S. deaths counts are now running above the levels at which Winter 2020 lockdowns were imposed.
Meanwhile, American leadership is switching to a new strategy in addressing COVID19, called ‘Don’t Panic: Get Yerself Covided! Suckers!’ https://twitter.com/i/status/1313267615083761665. Which totally makes sense for more than 70 million Americans who cannot afford COVID19 treatment without filing for bankruptcy, and another 30-40 million Americans who cannot medically handle COVID19 because of existing conditions.
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We may be skating on very thin ice here, but the weight of the evidence still supports a weak bull case for the near to intermediate term. So I’m adding buy picks on the chart pick list and adjusting trailing stops to account for the risk.
These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, for a broad audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance.