Updating my Scariest Charts for the latest data, through thee week of July 18, 2020:
First, a summary table and chart for changes in the Initial Unemployment Claims:
Click to enlarge
Click to enlarge
Next: Continued Unemployment Claims through the week of July 11, 2020:
Click to enlarge
Click to enlarge
Key takeaways this week:
Continued unemployment claims changes:
- Latest count at 16,197,000, down from 17,304,000 a week ago – a decline driven by both, re-gained jobs and exits from unemployment benefits;
- Latest week w/w decline is faster than in any of the prior weeks of the current recession;
- Latest counts are 14,495,000 above the levels recorded in the first week of the current recession and are 14,548,000 above pre-recession trough;
- At last week’s rate of decline, we have 13 weeks of unemployment claims to work through before recovering to pre-recession levels; based on the last 4 weeks average – 19 weeks.
New unemployment claims changes:
- Latest new unemployment claims filed figures are the lowest in the current recession cycle, but materially close to those recorded in the week of July 4, 2020;
- Nonetheless, we are now in 18 weeks of continued new unemployment claims filings in excess of 1 million per week.
Longer term view:
- Discontinuation of emergency $600/week unemployment support payment or curtailing of the benefit is likely to push both of the above series down in the short run in mid- to late-August, with a knock-on longer term effect of increasing longer term unemployment claims in September and onward.
