Before I started today’s thread, I chatted with “Jimi,” a member of the Capitalstool.com Stool Pigeons Wire community for 18 years, about our affinity for the French Riviera city of Nice. He’s thinking of getting a place there for retirement.
First we chatted about when I might be able to leave Europe to return to my home in Florida.
He said:
Hard to see the Trump administration taking steps before the election to shut down to stem the pandemic here.
Assuming Biden is elected, and that forecasts for a disastrous winter of infection are accurate, I can imagine his first order of bidniz being a 6-week shut down of the entire country.
Which would make March 2021 the earliest time you might entertain your return here.
I’ve been looking online at apartments for sale in the old port of Nice… dreaming. That new tram makes that quarter very attractive to me for my senior years.
Here’s what I wrote.
My apartment was at the port. Door to door to the airport in 26 minutes. There’s a unit for rent I think either right next door to my unit or on the floor above. Great building with a small supermarket, pharmacy, produce shop, and about 5 cafe/restaurants on ground floor View of the port, la Colline du Chateau, and the Med. The rock cliff beaches behind the port to the east are gorgeous.
I just love that town. So beautiful, so cosmopolitan, so relaxed, so convenient, so walkable. 90 minutes to Paris, Rome, or Barcelona. 2 hours to London, Amsterdam, Berlin, Madrid.
Don’t buy. Rent. Rent is ridiculously cheap. You can hold on to your cash to buy TSLA calls.
Then I ruminated about my gut feeling that we’re getting near the end of this madness.
What is our gut but the accumulated experience of our subconscious mind.
So my gut is the accumulation of about 56 years of either watching or participating in markets. Obviously we’ve never had central bank intervention and control to the degree we have now. But even that has its limits I think.
If the Primary Dealers decide that their very survival depends on it, they will use the QE to delever, rather than to continue to increase and mark up leveraged inventory. They may reach the point where they realize that there are no more buyers with ability to buy more.
I see all these new stock and options gamblers pouring into the game because their usual sports betting games have been shut down. The NBA and NCAA were two of the biggest betting games on earth. Around the world, all kinds of gambling were shut down. So addicts poured into the options game.
Now their favorite games are coming back. They only need to siphon off a few of the new stock and options players to tilt the playing field in the markets away from constantly on the upside. The base of the rally narrows. Only 7 big stocks and some vaccine plays continuously make new highs.
The rest of the market languishes.
Obviously, I don’t see clear signs of reversal in the TA on the major averages yet. I have far more long chart picks than short. But the time is coming. Soon I think.
Before getting to the nitty gritty.
Channel support reached at 3188. But hourly oscillators are bearish with a 3 day cycle low not due until tomorrow, and 5 day not till Monday-Tuesday.
Bears have a shot here. If they break 3188, market is probably thin from there to 3125.
3202-07 area should be resistance on a bounce. If cleared, then bulls are still in charge.
I’ll be back with updates during the day. Be sure to stop back and scroll down for the latest.
UPDATE 7:45 AM ET
Hourly indicators on the cusp here. An upturn from these levels combined with a trend breakout would be wildly bullish. Bears need to get below 3188 to be out of danger.
UPDATE 10:20 AM ET
A trend channel drawn across the lows is intact but currently being attacked. Still looking for a breakout and indicator confirmation.
UPDATED 3:35 PM ET
OK. That’s a breakout with indicator buy signals. Won’t take long to reach top of range. 5 day cycle projection 3265-70.
