Today’s Target 3135, But Bulls May Fumble

Stock Market Trading Setup for Tuesday, March 3, 2020

Hourly ES S&P 500 Futures Chart

As of 7:30 ET, the S&P futures are on the verge of a reversal. If 30 84 breaks, then they should fall to 3000 quickly. But if it holds, it should make a run at 3150.

FLASH- The uptrend broke right after I posted this. 

China Stock Market Overnight

The rebound in China has stalled. The Shag High needs to clear the trendline at 3030 for it to resume. Otherwise, back down the crapper it goes.

So far this is just a classic Return to the Scene of the Crime (support break) pattern. These are common, but if the downturn resumes, they’re usually protracted.

For now, it’s an ambiguous setup. A rollover here should lead to a dramatic drop toward a retest of the low. Conversely, a holding action near the trendline should lead to a renewal of the rally, heading for 3100.

S&P Futures Daily Chart

Back in New York, the rebound has also stalled overnight. A 50% fiber nacho retracement would be 3126. That’s also the area of a trendline projected from the first day of the crash. If the market makes no effort to get there, the crash will probably resume and go to new lows.

But above 3126, the bulls still have the ball.

S&P Cash Index Hourly Chart

The green oval at the far right is where the futures have been trading this morning. The uptrend off the low is intact. The lower trendline is at 3040 as of the NY open. But it rises to 3120 at 2:30 and 3133 at the close.

Break that trendline, and the bears get the ball back.

The 5 day cycle projection is currently 3135.  However, early strength could push that to 3185. Early weakness would say, Party OVER! The first target would be 3000.

“And that’s the way it is, Tuesday, March 3, 2020.”