The PBoC did a nice job of stopping a worldwide crash this morning. It pumped a gazillion yuan into their banking system and bankers instantly found a way to get it out of the country to bolster foreign markets.
At home, not so much.
This is a weekly bar chart of the Shanghai Composite. Look hard. See that little green bar on the far right, way down below the rest of the bars. That’s today and it’s one helluva gap! As a result, the weekly momentum indicator flipped to an ugly sell signal. Maybe, it’s only the beginning, oh oh oh oh whoa oh oh oaoaohhhh (sing it, bears)!
Meanwhile, back on Wall Street, the S&P fucutures (ES) looked like this at 6 AM in Noo Yawk. So far, it’s only a pullback and maybe not the beginning of anything.
Notice the indicated support around the 50 day moving average. That showed up in my proprietary measures as well. So it’s no surprise that we are seeing a bounce this morning.
But will it stick? Aye, there’s the rub!
On Friday, the 5 day cycle projection pointed to a low of 3200-3225. They got there. And 3213 was a clear support level. Hot stove touch there.
If PBoC Can’t Stop a Meltdown, What About the Fed?
So we get a tiny bounce this morning, but this market is not out of the woods. If PBoC can’t stop a meltdown in China, where it is all powerful, ultimately the Great and Powerful Oz Fed may not be able to stop one in the US.
Today’s action could be a significant tell. If the rally fizzles around or below 3240, then it will retest 3213. If that fails, look for 3208. And if that fails, 3185.
Conversely, if they clear 3240, there’s clearance to around 3260 before hitting resistance. Here’s the S&P cash, hourly chart.
Happy trades to you, until we meet again! For the big picture, and my tactical recommendations, see the weekly Technical Trader report.
What You Should Do With “On One Hand, On the Other”
There’s a lot of that infuriating, “On the one hand–On the other hand,” stuff in today’s report. On the one hand, I hate when that happens. On the other hand, it is what it is.
But the good thing is that there are clear parameters that should tell us what to expect as the week begins.
Technical Trader subscribers, click here to download the report.
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