Posts Tagged ‘ Sovereign Debt ’

Expanding the LTRO Looting Program

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February 1, 2012
Expanding the LTRO Looting Program

When you hear talk about expanding the European LTRO funding, is is important to go straight to the mechanics of the exercise, and then ask what does the new round of exposure mean to the ECB. The LTRO is a repo transaction where the ECB takes in collateral in order to back any loans. The ECB...
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Shipping Loans Go Bad for European Banks

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January 30, 2012

In 2008 the markets got very worked up with what at the time I was relentless calling a China commodity bubble.  A search under the term “China Bubble” from Winter Watch turns up 75 articles mostly in 2007-2008 and also in 2011. A bubble can be defined as speculative activity not well related to...
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What’s Priced Into the Market Uptrend?

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January 27, 2012
What’s Priced Into the Market Uptrend?

Is the operative phrase here "priced to perfection"? With everything from stocks and bonds to 'roo bellies rising as one trade, it may be a good time to ask: what's priced into the market's uptrend? We say "bad news is priced in" when negativ...
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Pushing Non-Official Holders of Local-Issued European Debt into Subordination

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January 26, 2012
Pushing Non-Official Holders of Local-Issued European Debt into Subordination

I spotted some interesting commentary on the maturing March 2012 Greek bonds. After buying at 40-45 cents, it seems the hedge funds are trying to unload in a bidless 35-cent market. The ECB has the largest stake, bought at 70 cents. This official holder’s dominance of this market, and refusal so far to  participate in haircuts, is making the...
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What Gives

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January 17, 2012
What Gives

     The awesome exertions of the global banking system to evade the mandates of reality finally yield in a sickening slippage to epochal unwind. What a bad idea: to try to juke nature itself. In case you weren't paying attention over the weekend - and who really wants to? - the cosmic Brinks...
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Not Too Bearish, Not Too Bullish, But Certainly Not Just Right

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December 22, 2011
Not Too Bearish, Not Too Bullish, But Certainly Not Just Right

The mad panic into Treasuries suddenly stopped this week. 1.80 on the 10 year yield looks like a floor. The question now is whether there’s enough follow through selling to break the major downtrend line which is now around 2.03. Wouldn’t it be ironic if this week’s massive ECB Long Term Refinancing Operation was...
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Did the ECB Pull Off a Back-Door Bailout that’ll End the Crisis?

Yields on short-term peripheral sovereign bonds are plunging, despite the fact that EU leaders appeared to make little progress at their highly-anticipated summit last week. Pundits continue to expound on the flaws of the eurozone but markets are tel...
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Europe’s debt deal is falling flat

Europe's Debt Crisis Europe's debt deal is falling flat By Aaron Smith@CNNMoneyMarketsDecember 15, 2011: 7:52 AM ET Germany's Angela Merkel is trying to instill Teutonic-style fiscal responsiblity throughout Europe, but bonds, stocks and the euro ar...
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Analysis: Europe’s austerity zeal risks killing the patient

Analysis: Europe's austerity zeal risks killing the patient Reuters – 3 hours ago.. . By Carmel Crimmins and Gavin Jones DUBLIN/ROME (Reuters) - Europe's "no pain no gain" attitude to solving its sovereign crisis risks exacerbating the bloc's proble...
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It’s Time to Brace for a Repeat of 2008

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December 13, 2011
It’s Time to Brace for a Repeat of 2008

If you think the global economy is out of the woods now that the European Union (EU) has expanded its effort to solve the sovereign debt crisis, then I'm afraid you're sorely mistaken.

No doubt, the European crisis is far from being solved - but that's hardly...
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U.S. Growth Decoupling From Bonds Means Lower Yields to JPMorgan

Bloomberg U.S. Growth Decoupling From Bonds Means Lower Yields to JPMorgan December 11, 2011, 7:26 PM EST By Daniel Kruger and Liz Capo McCormick Dec. 12 (Bloomberg) -- The strengthening U.S. economy is proving no deterrent to the biggest rally in ...
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Markets prepare for turmoil over fears of new European credit crunch

Markets prepare for turmoil over fears of new European credit crunch Doubts over legal basis of EU 'fiscal compact' and warning of fresh slump leave markets unsettled David Gow guardian.co.uk, Sunday 11 December 2011 15.29 EST A warning that Europe ...
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TGI Fixed Again – The Rube Goldberg Solution

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December 11, 2011
TGI Fixed Again – The Rube Goldberg Solution

TGI Fixed Again - The Rube Goldberg Solution Courtesy of Phil of Phil's Stock World Europe is FIXED (again)! While we are, of course, thrilled (again) - the final solution that Germany has come up with this time for some reason reminds me of a Rube Goldberg machine - with...
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You Can Rest Assured That The Insurance Industry Is In For Guaranteed Losses!

This is not a new post, but nobody has brought up the "I" in FIRE yet, and Mr. Middleton has been ahead of the curve on the banks & sovereign debt, so . . . You Can Rest Assured That The Insurance Industry Is In For Guaranteed Losses! The insurance...
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The Dearth of Safe Banking Collateral

Here is the chart few are looking at, and explains the concept of the dearth or shrinkage of so called safe collateral in the Euro and USD. The reason of course is that the Fed and other central banks hold much of it, or it is now encumbered via direct...
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The Dearth of Safe Banking Collateral

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December 6, 2011
The Dearth of Safe Banking Collateral

A chart that few are looking at, explains the concept of the dearth or shrinkage of so called safe collateral in the Euro and USD. The reason is that the Fed and other central banks hold much of it, or it is now encumbered via direct bilateral funding agreements or by sitting at the central bank drawing...
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The day of sovereign defaults

Any bears with solutions? _____ What happens on the day sovereign defaults are declared? -- and how does a small firm that relies on TTs from Europe/USA survive the turbulence? Scenario: A small $50 million dollar company with business in SE Asia...
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Europe Fears a Credit Squeeze as Investors Sell Bond Holdings

November 18, 2011 Europe Fears a Credit Squeeze as Investors Sell Bond Holdings By NELSON D. SCHWARTZ and ERIC DASH Nervous investors around the globe are accelerating their exit from the debt of European governments and banks, increasing the r...
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The “Sovereign Debt Standard”

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November 16, 2011

Sovereign debt is thought to be safe because, as we all know, nations always pay their debts. While individual nations go bankrupt from time to time, we maintain our faith in sovereign debt because the majority of nations don’t. But what happens if several nations go bankrupt in a very short span of...
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Wall Street Still Thinks Germany Is Bluffing

Tech|11/15/2011 @ 8:00AM Wall Street Still Thinks Germany Is Bluffing The current bond market havoc in Mediterranean countries is only compatible with S&P at 1,250 if you believe that the European debt market is simply wrong about Italy and Spain. Ei...
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Chance of 2012 U.S. recession tops 50 percent: Fed paper

Chance of 2012 U.S. recession tops 50 percent: Fed paper Reuters – 45 minutes ago.. . (Reuters) - The European debt crisis is raising the odds of a U.S. recession, with economic contraction more likely than not by early 2012, according to research ...
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Warren Buffett on CNBC: ‘Not Clear’ Europe Has Will or Ability to Resolve Crisis

Warren Buffett on CNBC: 'Not Clear' Europe Has Will or Ability to Resolve Crisis Published: Monday, 14 Nov 2011 | 6:18 AM ET Warren Buffett says it's not clear Europe has the will or ability to do "whatever it takes" to resolve its debt crisis. He ...
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Distortions In Baffling Financial Statements

November 10, 2011 Distortions In Baffling Financial Statements By FLOYD NORRIS This has been a bad year for banks. With sovereign debt no longer trusted and widespread fears of a new recession in Europe, share prices of banks have fallen sharpl...
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The Eurocalypse Rant: The Consequences of Foolish Monetary Policy

The Eurocalypse Rant: The Consequences of Foolish Monetary Policy . . . So its only too natural that the answer to Is The Entire Global Banking Industry Carrying Naked, Unhedged "Risk Free" Sovereign Debt Yielding XXX%? My quick answer is NAT...
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Italian Debt Threatens Europe’s Savers

NOVEMBER 11, 2011, 6:41 A.M. ET Italian Debt Threatens Europe's Savers . By HESTER PLUMRIDGE Italy could deal insurers a lethal blow. Europe's insurers own an estimated €300 billion (about $408 billion) of Italian sovereign debt—equivalent to a l...
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European banks face tens and possibly hundreds of billions of dollars in losses

November 10, 2011 Europe’s Banks Turned to Safe Bonds and Found Illusion By LIZ ALDERMAN and SUSANNE CRAIG PARIS — As the bets that European banks made on United States mortgage investments went bust a few years ago, bankers piled into what...
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Too-Big-To-Save: Italy Totters on Debt Crisis Cliff

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November 9, 2011
Too-Big-To-Save: Italy Totters on Debt Crisis Cliff

With its 10-year bond yields nearing 7%, Italy's debt is becoming a burden it will no longer be able to handle as it follows the same path as Portugal, Ireland and Greece.

However, Italy's economy - seven times larger than Greece's, nine times larger than Portugal's and 10...
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Stalling German Economy Will Throw Gasoline on Eurozone Debt Fire

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November 8, 2011
Stalling German Economy Will Throw Gasoline on Eurozone Debt Fire

Germany's economy is slowing dramatically, an unwelcome turn of events that will put even more strain on existing fractures in the European Union (EU) as it struggles to cope with its ongoing sovereign debt crisis.

Last month a consortium of eight leading economic institutes slashed their forecast for...
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Wall St spirals lower after Greek referendum call

..Wall St spirals lower after Greek referendum call By Rodrigo Campos | Reuters – 1 hr 17 mins ago NEW YORK (Reuters) - Stocks tumbled about 2 percent on Tuesday after the deal to rescue Greece and prevent a wider sovereign debt crisis was thrown in...
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Europe Might Have Blown Last Chance to End Its Crisis: View

Europe Might Have Blown Last Chance to End Its Crisis: View By the Editors Oct 30, 2011 7:00 PM ET 26 After an initial bounce, markets demonstrated a lack of confidence in Europe’s resolve to protect solvent governments from the financial malaise a...
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