US Federal Revenues Investor Monthly

Analysis of real time Federal revenues as they signal economic activity and likely changes in Treasury supply. Resulting market strategy recommendations. Click here to subscribe. Now published at Lee Adler’s Liquidity Trader.

January Tax Collections Make You Wonder Why Fed Panicked – Correction

CORRECTION: This morning I noticed an error in my reporting of the Federal Excise Tax collections in January. The error was borderline material relative to excise taxes. The annual growth rate was positive, and at the same rate as in December, but not at the rate I originally reported. The original chart as posted was correct.…

Federal Tax Collections Still Strong Enough to Keep Fed on Tightening Path Despite Market Selloff

Tax collections rose year to year in January, despite the tax cut taking effect. That means that US economic growth will continue to be hot enough to encourage the Fed to continue Quantitative Tightening and ignore market weakness. Here’s what you need to know. Follow the money. Find the profits!Liquidity is money. Regardless of where…

Blow Out Withholding Tax Collections

Note: This report was originally posted in the wrong category on Wednesday. It is part of the Federal Revenues Pro Trader Service, not the Macro Liquidity service. I apologize for the error! Follow the money. Find the profits!Liquidity is money. Regardless of where in the world that money originates, eventually it flows to and through…

Lower August Tax Collections Suggest US Near Recession, Fed To Delay Again

Real time withholding tax collections slumped badly in August after skyrocketing in July. The growth rate is now back to the lowest levels of the past year. As of September 1, the annual rate of change was +1% in actual, nominal terms versus the corresponding period a year ago.  That would be a negative number…

Federal Tax Collections Came Roaring Back in July

After 3 weak months, Federal Withholding Tax collectionss rose sharply in July. Here’s how the data looks and what it means for the markets. Follow the money. Find the profits!Liquidity is money. Regardless of where in the world that money originates, eventually it flows to and through Wall Street. So if you want to know…

Real Time Federal Tax Collections Show US Economy Contracting

Real time withholding tax collections contracted in June.They’re not the only taxes that are falling. Follow the money. Find the profits!Liquidity is money. Regardless of where in the world that money originates, eventually it flows to and through Wall Street. So if you want to know the direction of the next big moves in stocks…

Free Report- Current Federal Tax Collections Suggest A Bearish Economic Bounce

Real time withholding tax collections have been strong since I last reported on April 24. The nominal annual growth rate is now 6.6%%.  This has slightly broken a downtrend in these collections over the prior 7 months. But is that bullish? Follow the money. Find the profits!Liquidity is money. Regardless of where in the world…

Weekly and Monthly Federal Tax Data Show Slight Pickup

Real time withholding tax collection data rebounded in recent weeks and no longer show the US economy contracting. However, the trend of the growth rate remains down. The data has made lower highs and lower lows since last August. Follow the money. Find the profits!Liquidity is money. Regardless of where in the world that money…

Egg Face- Withholding Collections Growth Drops To Zero

The annual rate of change in withholding tax collections through Thursday, February 25, adjusted for wage and salary inflation, was essentially zero, putting the US economy on the verge of dropping into recession. It has been trending down since October, just not as badly as it had appeared. At the same time, the data still…