US Federal Revenues Investor Monthly

Analysis of real time Federal revenues as they signal economic activity and likely changes in Treasury supply. Available to subscribers of the Federal Revenues Investor Monthly Report. Click here to subscribe. Subscribers, click the post headline to access reports.

Lower August Tax Collections Suggest US Near Recession, Fed To Delay Again

Real time withholding tax collections slumped badly in August after skyrocketing in July. The growth rate is now back to the lowest levels of the past year. As of September 1, the annual rate of change was +1% in actual, nominal terms versus the corresponding period a year ago.  That would be a negative number…

Free Report- Current Federal Tax Collections Suggest A Bearish Economic Bounce

Real time withholding tax collections have been strong since I last reported on April 24. The nominal annual growth rate is now 6.6%%.  This has slightly broken a downtrend in these collections over the prior 7 months. But is that bullish? Click here to download report. This is part of a series of free Wall…

Weekly and Monthly Federal Tax Data Show Slight Pickup

Real time withholding tax collection data rebounded in recent weeks and no longer show the US economy contracting. However, the trend of the growth rate remains down. The data has made lower highs and lower lows since last August. The full month’s data for March in both withholding and other Federal taxes is now in…

Egg Face- Withholding Collections Growth Drops To Zero

The annual rate of change in withholding tax collections through Thursday, February 25, adjusted for wage and salary inflation, was essentially zero, putting the US economy on the verge of dropping into recession. It has been trending down since October, just not as badly as it had appeared. At the same time, the data still…

Federal Tax Collections Remain Near Stall Speed

The growth rate of withholding taxes was weak through December before a minor uptick at the end of the month. The year to year real growth rate is now around +0.5%. Here’s what it means for the markets. You can now subscribe to the Federal Revenues Report on a standalone monthly or weekly basis.