Housing

Here Are Three Observations on Housing That Show There’s No Way Out

September Housing Starts- Click to enlarge

The Fed has created permanent housing crisis from which there is no escape. Total US housing starts peaked in 1972. This chart shows actual (not seasonally manipulated) total starts, multifamily starts, and single family starts for each September since then. Click here to view chart if reading in email. I have 3 observations. The recovery in…

Here’s Why the Facts Underpinning Bullish New Home Sales Headlines Aren’t So Bullish

Thanks Fed for Helping The Average Guy

Yesterday’s new home sales report from the Census Bureau triggered an ebullient response. Big media used words like “surge; soar; rise sharply; above expectations” to describe it. The Wall Street Journal said, “Sales of new, single-family homes rose by 5.7% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 552,000.” The headline number they reported reflected the monthly seasonal adjustment and…

Low Rates, Low Inventory, and Raging Inflation Create The Fed’s No Win Housing Situation

Record Low Inventory To Sales Ratio

The NAR reported that the median US existing home sale price for sales that settled in July was $234,000, which puts the annual inflation rate for house prices at 5.6%. That’s softer than the June closed sale price inflation rate of 6.5% but still way above what the BLS is recognizing for the housing inflation component…

Here Are Three Big Reasons You Should Feud With The NAHB Homebuilders Housing Market Index

How Survivorship Bias Infects The NAHB Survey- Click to enlarge

The Wall Street Journal reported today that: U.S. Home-Builder Confidence Hits Near-Decade High “An index of builder confidence in the market for new single-family homes rose one point to a seasonally adjusted level of 61 in August, the National Association of Home Builders said Monday. A reading over 50 means most builders generally see conditions…

Here Are The Facts That Show New Homes Sales Are Actually a Bust And ZIRP A Failure

New House Sales By Region- Click to enlarge

The seasonally adjusted (SA) headline number for the monthly-error-times-12-annualized version of new home sales in June was 482,000. Wall Street analysts had guessed that the number would be 550,000. The Wall Street Journal went into apoplectic excuse-making mode, almost foaming at the mouth to try to find pundits to explain away the bad number. The…

Mouthpiece Of The Mob Says Existing Home Sales Are All Good News

Home Sale Prices and Volume - Click to enlarge

The media dutifully reported the NAR’s version of seasonally adjusted, built-in monthly error times 12, annualized, officially recorded, home sales closings in June today. The housing industry cartel and lobbying behemoth said that houses are selling at an annual rate of 5,340,000 on that basis. Bloomberg enthused that, “Sales of previously owned U.S. homes climbed to an eight-year high in June…