To me, the big, big, big Macro economic factor is population growth (or the lack of it). Coupled with population growth is the rate of aging within the population. I don’t care what the Fed and all the other CB’s do to push back on the deflationary consequences of demographics. Those forces of will trump the CB’s efforts, it’s just a matter of when.
I’m amazed at what’s happened since the Mike Lewis/60 Minutes interview. It’s like the book has unearthed some heretofore unknown information. As a result of these ‘revelations’ the Press has gone mad (it’s a global story), and the FBI, SEC and DoJ have announced they are looking into the evils of HFT.
In March of 2011 I had this to say about Puerto Rico and its muni bonds: The weather is great. The beaches are beautiful. The food is good and the drinks are better. The bonds, on the other hand,don’t get on my “buy” list.
So Obama went to California to talk drought and climate change. He brought some cash with him to help the state cope with the water shortage. The Prez is right to be worried about this drought, after all, Cali is 15% of the US economy.
The Big O will give us the SOTU pep talk tonight. Obama will pound on the theme of income inequality in America.
Two theories to explain the year-to-date global dumpathon. The first is that it’s all local issues – no single macro story explains the depth of the sell off. Some examples (and why they are individually no big deal):
When Harry Reid (D-NV) changed the rules on how the Senate votes for a Presidential appointment, he opened the door for a critical change in the leadership at the Federal Housing Finance Authority (FHFA). In short order, the Administrations’ pick for the job, Mel Watt, got the appointment that had been stalled for a year, and Mike DeMarco is out. Liberals hated DeMarco. And with good reason.
The Congressional Budget Office is out with its annual review of Social Security. It’s a long report – here’s all you need to know: This result is no surprise. SS’s finances deteriorate every year. What I found interesting is the extent of the deterioration. 2013 was the best year since 2008 for [...]
The capital market for new issues and refinancing of corporate debt has been on a tear the past few months – I think that ended yesterday. That’s because the dreaded Taper Talk has resurfaced. The Fed minutes yesterday rekindled Fear of Taper.
I was blown out by the Labor Force Participation Rate (LFPR) data released Friday. Down 4 tics to 62.8%. That sounds like no big deal, but it is. Either there is something out of whack with the data, and it will be revised, or there will have to be some serious rethinking by the [...]