The Treasury market panic saw a bit of a reversal this week, partly due to an unexpected, large increase in supply because of a sharp drop in Federal tax revenues over the past couple of weeks, and partly due to the market misunderstanding of Thursday morning’s news. The “better than expected” weekly unemployment claims data…
Tag Archive for Withholding Taxes
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Treasury Market About Face- Just a Blip or Sign of Things To Come?
by Lee Adler • • 0 Comments
I mentioned in my last free report that the bulge in withholding tax collections which may have been a tipoff to the better than expected payrolls data, had subsided. I took another look at the data today, and there’s been no rebound since I posted that report. Follow the money. Find the profits!Liquidity is money.…
Email Bulletins Archive, Lee's Free Thinking, Must Read
Deconstructing The “Massive Beat” in Employment Data- Corrected
by Lee Adler • • 20 Comments
Editor’s Note: The earlier version of this article included unadjusted numbers derived from a spreadsheet error. The error resulted in the not seasonally adjusted month to month employment declines being understated. The data has been corrected. The analysis and conclusions are unaffected. Thanks to rdkyote for bringing this to my attention! Follow the money. Find…
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Treasury Announces Sharply Reduced Borrowing Estimates
by Lee Adler • • 0 Comments
Consistent with reports in the Wall Street Examiner Professional Edition Treasury Updates, the government will borrow less in the first quarter than it had originally forecast, primarily due to a big increase in withholding taxes since mid December. It is also estimating a much lower borrowing rate for the second quarter, meaning that its economic…
Lee's Free Thinking, Liquidity Trader Complete, Professional Edition
European Panic Sweeps 700 Pound Gorilla Under The Rug
by Lee Adler • • 0 Comments
The Treasury rally got some help this week from a surge in Federal Withholding Tax collections that is helping to keep new supply down. Whereas new supply had been exceeding TBAC estimates for the past couple of months, it has come back in line with estimates, and could be reduced even further in the weeks…
Liquidity Trader Complete, Professional Edition
Huge Surge in Withholding Taxes Shows How Great Wall Street Is
by Lee Adler • • 0 Comments
Treasury supply is moderating as a result of a surge in Federal Withholding Tax collections in the second half of December. I suspect that this is a one time event due to Wall Street doling out much larger bonuses than last year, thanks to the wonderful job its bankers have done in guiding our financial…
Charts, Economics, Email Bulletins Archive, Liquidity Trader Complete, Professional Edition
Bloody September
by Lee Adler • • 0 Comments
The following paragraphs are free excerpts from today’s Wall Street Examiner Professional Edition Treasury update. The subscriber link to the complete report is below. Follow the money. Find the profits!Liquidity is money. Regardless of where in the world that money originates, eventually it flows to and through Wall Street. So if you want to know…
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Federal Withholding Tax Data Says US Already In Recession
by Lee Adler • • 0 Comments
I wanted to follow up with you on the June 17 report on Federal Withholding Tax collections, which I cover regularly in the Professional Edition Treasury Update (latest report here). I like tracking withholding taxes because they are one of the only economic barometers that we can follow virtually in real time on a daily…
Charts, Economics, Email Bulletins Archive, Liquidity Trader Complete
Federal Tax Receipts Show Economy Grinding To A Halt
by Lee Adler • • 0 Comments
This post is an abridged excerpt from the June 16 Wall Street Examiner Professional Edition Treasury update. Click here to try the service risk free for 30 days and get this week’s complete Treasury and Fed reports and all updates, along with other weekly and monthly reports essential for understanding where the markets and the…
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Outlays Up, Revenues Down, Yields Supply Surprise – Professional Edition
by Lee Adler • • 2 Comments
ACCESS LINK CORRECTED! The Treasury surprised the market on Monday when it announced a 21 day CMB for $35 billion. That was apparently necessary to roll over the expiring 300 day $25 billion CMB, and raise new cash. This week we introduce new charts to track daily withholding taxes so that you can see the…
