We are seeing signs of significant improvements in US labor markets. The ADP report today was certainly an indication of recovery from the winter slowdown.
We continue to see debate around the trajectory of US labor markets. Measures such as the employment-population ratio have completely diverged from the “headline” unemployment rate.
Today’s payrolls shocker (see story) sent treasury yields sharply lower. As discussed last month (see post), speculative investors have piled into the market and were forced to cover their shorts after the jobs report. Going forward, until there is more visibility on the labor markets, investors will be more cautious shorting treasuries.
Today, 1.3 million long-term unemployed workers sit restlessly in Congress’ palm. They will be left without federal unemployment benefits just three days after Christmas if Washington fails to rework the budget deal to extend the Emergency Unemployment Compensation Program (EUC).
DB’s chart of the US unemployment rate (below) received numerous comments on Twitter. Clearly the projection of the linear decline continuing at the same rate is a bit aggressive. But many of the comments were dismissive of the measure altogether – arg…
Good news is actually good news on Wall Street today.
Stocks rallied Friday following a robust November jobs report that showed U.S. employers continued to add jobs at a steady pace last month, which pulled the unemployment rate down to a five-year low at 7.0%.
A number of economists continue to talk about the “structural shift” in US labor markets that took place during the Great Recession. For example, back in September, Georgetown University published a report called Failure to Launch: Structural Shift and…
Despite worries the 16-day government shutdown would weigh on job growth, the October jobs report was surprisingly strong.
That’s what the government is reporting, anyway…
According to the Labor Department numbers released today (Friday), employers increased headcount by 204,000 in October, handily beating the 120,000 many economists expected. The government report also showed revisions to late summer numbers, revealing an extra 60,000 jobs total were created in August and September.
More evidence is emerging that the US economic activity has slowed recently. In addition to the manufacturing output decline (see Twitter chart) and slower home sales (chart), the latest private payrolls number from ADP now shows a decline in job creat…
The US civilian unemployment rate, which clocked at 7.2% last month, has been declining at the fastest rate in nearly two decades. The focus however has been on other labor market indicators. One of those is the employment-population ratio, the proport…
