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This post is an update excerpt of the permanent page of Employment Charts, which is updated regularly whenever new data is released. Bookmark that page for future reference. This week’s data on first time unemployment claims was slightly weaker, but not terrible. The gross numbers are still a big improvement over last year, but the…
USA TODAYStocks drop as Europe overshadows US economic newsUSA TODAYBy Pallavi Gogoi, AP NEW YORK – Stocks slipped Thursday as unease over Europe overshadowed an encouraging report on unemployment claims and good results from big retailers, including…
I have posted a new permanent page of charts of first time unemployment claims and Federal withholding taxes. The data shows current actual, not seasonally manipulated data, with annual rates of change and stock market correlations. They may be helpful in helping you estimate the monthly employment data. Employment Charts
The mainstream media today reported an increase in initial jobless claims this week to 380,000, an increase of 13,000. This was another huge miss for the consensus of conomists, where the central tendency of expectations was for 359,000 initial claims. The conomic establishment continues to prove its worth week in and week out. The question…
The Treasury market panic saw a bit of a reversal this week, partly due to an unexpected, large increase in supply because of a sharp drop in Federal tax revenues over the past couple of weeks, and partly due to the market misunderstanding of Thursday morning’s news. The “better than expected” weekly unemployment claims data…
The mainstream media proclaimed an unexpected “beat” of the first time unemployment claims number today. The fake, seasonally fudged number dropped to 358,000 in the week ended February 4. According to Bloomberg, the consensus of economists’ expectations was for 370,000. Aside from the fact that whether economists get a forecast right or not seems to…
SP futures (or ES electronic mini S&P) traded flat through most of the night, then went into rally mode at 7 AM NY time, topping out on release of the weekly unemployment claims, which beat expectations. The futures have since been walking sideways, just above the converged 2 and 5 day cycle centerlines, which are…
Having repeated essentially the same analysis and forecast for seemingly the past 10 days, I won’t bore subscribers with more of the same tonight, especially since it’s late and you have enough to digest with the housing report and the free reports on unemployment claims and retail sales. Cycle projections were down slightly in the…
December 28, 2011, 6:00 am
The Biggest Cut in Unemployment Benefits
By CASEY B. MULLIGAN
Casey B. Mulligan is an economics professor at the University of Chicago.
While Congress has been debating whether to cut the duration of unemployment benefit…
