Tag Archive for Term Trend

Lots of Conomic Data Releases, All Of Them Misleading

There’s been lots of conomic data over the past couple of days. I covered the NAHB builder survey yesterday. Regardless of the fact that the housing market is at pathetic levels historically, the builder data showed the rebound off the lows to be on track. Today, the government released data on housing starts to add…

Durable Goods and The Stock Market, with The Fed In The Driver’s Seat

Durable goods orders rose 8.7% In February versus January on a nominal, not seasonally adjusted basis. The mainstream media reported only the 2.2% seasonally massaged increase, which missed the consensus expectation of 2.9%. The actual, unadjusted increase was the best February gain since February 2004, so the actual data could hardly be read as disappointing.…

Durable Goods Devil In The Details And The Big Picture

“Durable Goods Orders Rise 4%,” blared the headlines this morning. There was just one minor problem with that. It was not true. It represented the seasonally adjusted, massaged, and manipulated number, which bears no semblance to reality. The mainstream media always reports just the seasonal hocus pocus while ignoring the actual number. That actual number…

Smoking Dope – Professional Edition Fed Report

The awful performances of the longer term Treasury auctions contained within them a sign that foreign central banks are beginning to reverse a normal intermediate cycle upswing in their purchases of Treasuries and GSEs. The long term trend of FCB purchases continues to be down. The Treasury has expressed confidence that the domestic banking system…