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Liquidity Cliff Timing Aligns with Cycle Tops: Market Meltup Risks Reversal

The S&P 500’s vertical meltup paused at a key regression channel centerline, as Monday’s downtick now threatens to become a reversal. Short-term cycles are peaking, the six-month cycle remains on a sell signal, and long-term projections face major internal conflict. The Cycle Wave Composite has reached levels that marked previous tops. Breadth is weakening. If xxxx breaks, it would confirm a major top.

Here are the specifics on what you need to know and to look for.

Publication Schedule Note

The Technical Trader Market Update will be posted on Tuesday again this week. I had intended to return to regular weekend or Monday morning postings…

Liquidity Cliff Came Early this Year, Unlike Easter. Will Markets Be Risen?

The cliff came early. I had projected August under the assumption of politics as usual. That assumption was wrong. Politics no longer works the way it used to, i.e., under a system of checks and balances. The one-party state lifted the debt ceiling by $5 trillion in the context of the rump BBB bill through Congress and the President signed it into law, without the usual down-to-the-wire Kabuki theater. Instead, we now have strongman theater.

We need to get used to that. Although that does not mean that future policy enactment will be any more predictable.

So now we have to ask. Will markets rise?

Can pigs fly?

Here’s the answer.

Gold Trader Update: Latest Cycle Analysis and Mining Stock Review Available

Gold’s technical picture is shifting as short-term cycles complete their bottoming process and align with longer-term upward momentum. After weeks of mixed signals where geopolitical events clashed with traditional cycle patterns, the latest analysis reveals key cycle confluences that could drive the next major move. With critical resistance levels approaching and multiple timeframes showing coordination, gold traders are watching for definitive breakout signals that would confirm the next phase of the precious metals rally.

Liquidity Trader Swing Trade Picks- Underperformance

The list will be 100% short this week. There are 3 new picks, all shorts.

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