GSAI – The Wall Street Examiner

After the AAPL announcement, corporate earnings expectations for S&P500 take a sharp turn for the worse- Sober Look

Walter Kurtz Contributors- Economic and Financial November 3, 2012 0 Comments

The recent earnings guidance from Apple has hit a reset button on earnings growth expectation for the US stock market. Earnings per share (EPS) growth expectations for the S&P500 companies corrected sharply to the downside.Barclays Capital (Ba…

US data: manufacturing activity remains weak; improvements seen in consumer confidence and resi construction- Sober Look

Walter Kurtz Contributors- Economic and Financial November 2, 2012 0 Comments

The Manufacturing ISM number did not surprise to the downside as Goldman’s GSAI was indicating (see discussion). The divergence between GSAI and the ISM has in fact widened, as the corporate sector exhibits a great deal of pessimism. Nevertheless US ma…

Spooky Halloween surprise from Goldman – Sober Look

Walter Kurtz Contributors- Economic and Financial November 1, 2012 0 Comments

The Goldman Sachs Analyst Index (GSAI) hit a new post-recession low this month. The index is a composite of corporate outlook by industry from Goldman’s company research. In the past, the index generally fell in line with other economic activity indice…

Get Ready for the Coming Bond Market Bloodbath

Janet Yellen has now confirmed that the Treasury will run out of money in October, as we already knew from our tracking of the data. Congress will be forced to raise the debt ceiling. Treasury supply will mushroom at the same time as the Fed begins to cut its market support operations. The RRP slush fund will affect the timing of the coming disaster. But we know its coming and we have a good idea of when.

Meanwhile the BLS has fomented a completely false picture of inflation. I explain that in this report. It’s blatant.

Constructive Signs for Gold Digging

The cycle picture is hazy. The table at left (subscriber version) is my best guess. A short term low is due, but at a lower projection. The would-be 13-17 week cycle up phase has gone nowhere, despite a new projection that points higher. If it doesn’t get out of this range soon, it would suggest the possibility of a wicked down phase ahead. If the price holds above the May-August downtrend line as shown on this chart (subscriber version), that would be constructive

Lots of Sell Signals Again From Friday’s Swing Trade Screen

Including 5 holdovers from last week, there are now 13 open picks on the list, all longs.

Nothing Has Happened Yet

From a time perspective, the 10-12 month cycle ideally should be in a top phase. But it surpassed its last cycle projection of 4440 so it is probably in trending mode. Both the 6 month cycle and the 13 week cycles appear to be trending.

Useless Banking Indicators Except for One Giant Red Flag

I started to wonder how the banking indicators were looking lately. I’ve looked at the charts this morning. In updating this for you, I’ve again attempted to minimize the verbiage here. The charts are bad enough.