Tag Archive for Federal Withholding Tax

Weakening Federal Withholding Tax Collections Do Not Bode Well For Employment

This report is an excerpt from the permanent Employment Chart page.  Follow the money. Find the profits!Liquidity is money. Regardless of where in the world that money originates, eventually it flows to and through Wall Street. So if you want to know the direction of the next big moves in stocks and bonds, just follow…

Nonfarm payrolls should fall by 377,000 (But they won’t)

Let’s play “guess the nonfarm payrolls.” After all, our guess is as good as the conomists’, whose forecasts nicely fit a random distribution of hits and misses month in and month out. Follow the money. Find the profits!Liquidity is money. Regardless of where in the world that money originates, eventually it flows to and through…

Deconstructing The “Massive Beat” in Employment Data- Corrected

Editor’s Note: The earlier version of this article included unadjusted numbers derived from a spreadsheet error. The error resulted in the not seasonally adjusted month to month employment declines being understated. The data has been corrected. The analysis and conclusions are unaffected. Thanks to rdkyote for bringing this to my attention! Follow the money. Find…

Federal Withholding Tax Data Says US Already In Recession

I wanted to follow up with you on the June 17 report on Federal Withholding Tax collections, which I cover regularly in the Professional Edition Treasury Update (latest report here). I like tracking withholding taxes because they are one of the only economic barometers that we can follow virtually in real time on a daily…

Theoretical Seeds of A Housing Bottom- Professional Edition

Purchase mortgage applications fell back to near their recent lows last week, reversing the surge from the previous week. That was caused by the FHA’s new, tougher requirements on credit scores and down payments. The week before last was the deadline for deadbeats to get in under the old easy money game rules. That blip…