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Liquidity Cliff Countdown Update – The Edge Is Closer Than We Thought

The US is approaching a liquidity cliff when the government runs out of cash and floods the Treasury market with a tsunami of supply. Unlike previous episodes, there’s no emergency backup fund. The politics is heating up, but it won’t change the timeline estimate.

Here’s the data, the charts, and the analysis leading to the timeline estimate and guiding us through the weeks ahead.

Publication Schedule Note

The Technical Trader Market Update will be posted on Tuesday again this week. I hope to return to regular weekend or Monday morning postings next…

Macroliquidity Special Update – Foreign Central Bank US Holdings Are Plunging

The chart of combined foreign central bank holdings and RRPs with the Fed continues to plunge in opposition to the US market rallies. The charts show that foreigners continue run from the US.

Rally in Doubt as Breadth and Cycle Signals Fail to Confirm

Monday’s rebound gave the appearance of strength, but this week’s report shows why it may be a trap. Trend channels have fractured, cycle indicators are not confirming yet, and breadth momentum remains deeply negative. The rally lacks confirmation—and history shows that moves like this rarely stick.

Publication Schedule Note

Good morning-Due to a disruption in my travel itinerary today–my train was canceled while I was waiting at the station–I will be unable to post…

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