Tag Archive for Big Picture

Putting Our Slow Jobs Recovery Into Perspective – Businessweek

Disappointing, but not shocking. The government’s report Friday that the economy created fewer jobs than expected in April—115,000—showed an unwelcome deceleration of America’s job-creating machine. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News had a median forecast of 160,000 jobs created. In the big picture, though, the nearly 3-year-old expansion is proceeding at the same pace as the…

Lots of Conomic Data Releases, All Of Them Misleading

There’s been lots of conomic data over the past couple of days. I covered the NAHB builder survey yesterday. Regardless of the fact that the housing market is at pathetic levels historically, the builder data showed the rebound off the lows to be on track. Today, the government released data on housing starts to add…

The Markets Are About to Tell You Something

Most people seem to have a hard time understanding why the markets do what they do.

The only reason I don’t is that I’ve been trading professionally for 30 years.

Not that I “got it” when I started out. I didn’t. I had to learn. And I learned much of what I know the hard way. I made a lot of mistakes. I studied my mistakes, I still do, just as much as I study what moves markets and what I get right.

I’m always learning. That’s because everything changes. You have to always take in new data, mesh it with recent data, layer it over the past, and not ever think you know for sure what’s going to happen.

So, how do you do it? How do you understand what’s going on with different markets?

Here’s how I do it (and get it right a lot)…

It’s First and Foremost About the “Big Picture”

I synthesize all the big goings-on, all the headline market-moving news and data points, and I watch and “listen” to how the markets react.

Money moves markets, but psychology moves money.

Markets are living things. They have feelings; their reactions are a direct reflection of the psychological impact reflected in the buying and selling of traders (first) and investors (distantly second) to the goings-on that participants believe will affect the decision-making of other market participants.

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Blockbuster Full Time Employment Growth, But An Intractable Long Term Crisis

Over the past week you have heard, read, and seen all kinds of noise about the government’s employment report. I even supplied some of that noise. We’ve seen all kinds of analyses explaining why the data was worse than expected, or better than it looked, etc. To the casual observer, it’s all very confusing. That’s…

Almost "Everything" Update: Short to Long-Term Outlooks Across Markets — and a Striking Analog

Early last week, the structure of the waves suddenly looked quite bullish — however the market has, so far, failed to follow through, which is causing me to re-examine this outlook. 

Normally, one can determine the next higher degree …

Durable Goods and The Stock Market, with The Fed In The Driver’s Seat

Durable goods orders rose 8.7% In February versus January on a nominal, not seasonally adjusted basis. The mainstream media reported only the 2.2% seasonally massaged increase, which missed the consensus expectation of 2.9%. The actual, unadjusted increase was the best February gain since February 2004, so the actual data could hardly be read as disappointing.…