Durable Goods charts and data
U.S. Durable Goods Orders Rise 3.4% in June blared the Wall Street Journal headline this morning. As usual, not only is that not the whole story, it’s misleading. It’s wrong. It’s dumb. It raises the question of why the mainstream media adamantly refuses to report the facts. More importantly, why do they ignore the blatantly…
Core capital goods orders, adjusted by the PPI to reflect the actual volume of orders over time, fell 1% year to year in April. We know that the BLS is understating the inflation rate, so the actual trend is probably worse than this. But this is bad enough. The recent “recovery” may be beginning the next down cycle…
Real Core Durable Good Orders (all orders except transportation equipment and defense capital goods) rose by 1.5% year to year in March. That was the actual, not seasonally adjusted number (NSA), but adjusted for inflation. On a month to month basis, the number was so-so. Orders rose by 12.8%. That compares with the average March gain of…
The market is taking a huge dump this morning, misled yet again by phony, fictitious, misleading, and flat-out wrong seasonally adjusted (SA) data on Durable Goods orders. The Wall Street conomist consensus guess was for a gain of 0.5% in the SA headline number. Woops. It came in at minus 3.4%. The crowd shit its…
Actual, not seasonally adjusted real durable goods orders rose 12.1% in March from February. March is typically the strongest month of the year. The current number represents below average performance. The 10 year average gain for March was 14.4% from 2003 to 2013. These are inflation adjusted numbers representing actual order volume, not nominal sales. The…
December Durable Goods Were Weak The headline number for seasonally adjusted, nominal durable goods orders fell 4.3% in December. That was worse than the lowest guess of economists in a survey conducted by Bloomberg. Actual, Real Durable Goods Orders Were At Same Level as December 2012 and 2011 In real terms, adjusted for inflation, and…
The ISM Manufacturing PMI is misleading about the US manufacturing recovery.
The headline number on durable goods orders was shockingly bad, which we all know is bullish. For a change the SA data wasn’t misleading. Underlying the seasonally massaged (SA) headline data (see Note below), the actual data, not seasonally adjusted (NSA), was just as bad. After backing out inflation, real durable goods orders continue to trend down,…
