Manufacturing

Includes ISM, Durable Goods, Factory Orders

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The What’s Wrong With This Picture Chart of the Month – Durable Goods

U.S. Durable Goods Orders Rise 3.4% in June blared the Wall Street Journal headline this morning. As usual, not only is that not the whole story, it’s misleading. It’s wrong. It’s dumb. It raises the question of why the mainstream media adamantly refuses to report the facts. More importantly, why do they ignore the blatantly…

Here’s How Bernanke’s Bubble Trickle Down Is Working For US Manufacturers

Real Core Capital Goods Orders- Click to enlarge

Core capital goods orders, adjusted by the PPI to reflect the actual volume of orders over time, fell 1% year to year in April. We know that the BLS is understating the inflation rate, so the actual trend is probably worse than this. But this is bad enough. The recent “recovery” may be beginning the next down cycle…

Let’s Get Real- Manufacturing Didn’t Suck But Construction Spending Did

Real Construction Spending- Click to enlarge

By now you have heard of the great news on factory orders and construction spending in July. Construction spending beat consensus expectations. The pundits had expected a 1% increase on the seasonally finagled headline number for construction and got 1.8%. The headline seasonally adjusted July increase in factory orders was a whopping 10.5%. Wall Street…

What Religion is Your ISM? FLASH- OPERATOR SAYS YOU HAVE DIALED THE WRONG NUMBER- DIAL AGAIN

ISM New Orders Revised- Click to enlarge

BULLETIN! ISM REPORTS THAT IT APPLIED THE WRONG SEASONAL ADJUSTMENT FACTOR TO MAY DATA. TOTAL SA FAKE NUMBER SHOULD BE 56, NOT 53.2. REAL NUMBER, WHICH IS NEVER REPORTED, IS CORRECT. BUT THAT’S FOR YOU TO FIGURE OUT.  The headline, seasonally adjusted (ugh) ISM index of manufacturing in the US came in at 53.2 for…

Real Durable Goods Orders Below Average in March, Trend Stays Weak

Core Durable Goods Trend Stays Weak - Click to enlarge

Actual, not seasonally adjusted real durable goods orders rose 12.1% in March from February. March is typically the strongest month of the year. The current number represents below average performance. The 10 year average gain for March was 14.4% from 2003 to 2013. These are inflation adjusted numbers representing actual order volume, not nominal sales. The…

Durable Goods Orders Flat for Past Two Years

December Durable Goods Were Weak The headline number for seasonally adjusted, nominal durable goods orders fell 4.3% in December. That was worse than the lowest guess of economists in a survey conducted by Bloomberg. Actual, Real Durable Goods Orders Were At Same Level as December 2012 and 2011 In real terms, adjusted for inflation, and…

Fast Facts – While Fed Wonders How QE Works, We Don’t- Example Factory Odors

A few Fedheads are wondering publicly about how QE affects the economy. I have to ignore that stuff because it makes me want to puke. It is patently obvious that QE has virtually no effect on the economy, and even crushes the middle class through wage suppression, while enriching the 1%. Meanwhile Bernanke goes out on…