Includes ISM, Durable Goods, Factory Orders
U.S. Durable Goods Orders Rise 3.4% in June blared the Wall Street Journal headline this morning. As usual, not only is that not the whole story, it’s misleading. It’s wrong. It’s dumb. It raises the question of why the mainstream media adamantly refuses to report the facts. More importantly, why do they ignore the blatantly…
Core capital goods orders, adjusted by the PPI to reflect the actual volume of orders over time, fell 1% year to year in April. We know that the BLS is understating the inflation rate, so the actual trend is probably worse than this. But this is bad enough. The recent “recovery” may be beginning the next down cycle…
Factory Orders for March came in at a seasonally adjusted headline number of a 2.1% monthly gain. That was in line with the Street consensus and a rebound from a drop of 0.1% in February. The pundits concluded that this would keep the Fed on track to raise rates this year. I have no quarrel with…
Real Core Durable Good Orders (all orders except transportation equipment and defense capital goods) rose by 1.5% year to year in March. That was the actual, not seasonally adjusted number (NSA), but adjusted for inflation. On a month to month basis, the number was so-so. Orders rose by 12.8%. That compares with the average March gain of…
The market is taking a huge dump this morning, misled yet again by phony, fictitious, misleading, and flat-out wrong seasonally adjusted (SA) data on Durable Goods orders. The Wall Street conomist consensus guess was for a gain of 0.5% in the SA headline number. Woops. It came in at minus 3.4%. The crowd shit its…
By now you have heard of the great news on factory orders and construction spending in July. Construction spending beat consensus expectations. The pundits had expected a 1% increase on the seasonally finagled headline number for construction and got 1.8%. The headline seasonally adjusted July increase in factory orders was a whopping 10.5%. Wall Street…
BULLETIN! ISM REPORTS THAT IT APPLIED THE WRONG SEASONAL ADJUSTMENT FACTOR TO MAY DATA. TOTAL SA FAKE NUMBER SHOULD BE 56, NOT 53.2. REAL NUMBER, WHICH IS NEVER REPORTED, IS CORRECT. BUT THAT’S FOR YOU TO FIGURE OUT. The headline, seasonally adjusted (ugh) ISM index of manufacturing in the US came in at 53.2 for…
Actual, not seasonally adjusted real durable goods orders rose 12.1% in March from February. March is typically the strongest month of the year. The current number represents below average performance. The 10 year average gain for March was 14.4% from 2003 to 2013. These are inflation adjusted numbers representing actual order volume, not nominal sales. The…
December Durable Goods Were Weak The headline number for seasonally adjusted, nominal durable goods orders fell 4.3% in December. That was worse than the lowest guess of economists in a survey conducted by Bloomberg. Actual, Real Durable Goods Orders Were At Same Level as December 2012 and 2011 In real terms, adjusted for inflation, and…
A few Fedheads are wondering publicly about how QE affects the economy. I have to ignore that stuff because it makes me want to puke. It is patently obvious that QE has virtually no effect on the economy, and even crushes the middle class through wage suppression, while enriching the 1%. Meanwhile Bernanke goes out on…
