Employment

Charts, data, and analysis of latest employment indicators.

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7 Year Trend of Falling Unemployment Claims Slows

First time claims for unemployment compensation continued their string of record lows for the same week of the year but the improvement in the weekly number slowed radically last week in what could be the first sign of trend change. The actual number, not subject to any seasonal hocus pocus was 384,481. That was 2,668 claims per million…

Unemployment Claims Still Sailing Along At Record Lows, Withholding Taxes Down Slightly in Q3

Initial Claims and Annual Rate of Change

Employers continue to ignore the signals sent by the recent stock market fracture. They are still hoarding their low cost labor forces at a record rate, exceeding that of any past bubble in history. First time claims for unemployment compensation continued their string of record lows for the same week of the year. The actual number, not subject…

Tone Deaf Employers Continue To Ignore Warnings in Job Hoarding Bubble

Initial Claims and Stock Prices

First time claims for unemployment compensation continued their string of record lows for the same week of the year. The actual number, not subject to any seasonal hocus pocus was 220,000 (rounded). That was just 1,548 claims per million employed workers last week. That compares with 1,817 per million in the same week of 2007 just as the housing…

Initial Claims In Blowoff Move Set 41 Year Record Low

Initial Claims and Stock Prices

First time claims for unemployment compensation hit a 41 year record low last week at just over 198,000. This was the actual number, not subject to any seasonal hocus pocus. 41 years ago the labor force was only 60% as large as it is today, so on a workforce size adjusted basis this number was even more extreme.…

Initial Claims Breadth Index Nears Bearish Breakout

An analysis of individual state claims serves as a kind of advance decline line for confirmation of the trend in the total numbers. The states report the data to the Department of Labor, which accumulates the data into its weekly national report. It’s also interesting to see how the big oil states are doing. Since…

Initial Claims Signal End of Bubble – May Cause Really Stupid, Futile Gesture on Fed’s Part

Initial Claims and Annual Rate of Change

A 2 year string of record lows in initial unemployment claims finally appears to be ending. First time claims in the September 5 week were not materially lower than last year, and were actually slightly above the first week in the record setting string which began in September 2013. From then until now almost every…

Shocking JOLTS for Janet

Hires to Job Openings Ratio- Click to enlarge

Janet Yellen’s favorite labor market indicator the JOLTS survey showed record job openings and hires in July but the ratio of hires to job openings continued to fall to new record lows. The plunge in this ratio is a metaphor for the maladjustment and distortion which ZIRP and QE induced in the labor market by incentivizing useless speculation…

Still No Recession Signal In Initial Claims Advance Decline Line (Breadth Index)

I look at an analysis of individual state claims as a kind of advance decline line for confirmation of the trend in the total numbers. The states report the data to the Department of Labor, which accumulates the data into its weekly national report. It’s also interesting to see how the big oil states are…

Initial Claims Show Employers Are Still Asleep So Payrolls Should Beat Consensus

Initial Claims and Stock Prices

The stock market broke, but initial claims are still at record levels. This is how it has historically works as bubbles start to deflate. Employers are the last to get the news. But the very fact of their record long term ebullience was warning enough, as I have repeatedly chronicled here over the past year.…