Let’s call a spade a spade, please. What we have here is housing “inflation,” hardly housing “recovery.” Housing prices are rising 10-15% per year, but nobody in the media is calling it what it is. There’s a wall of silence. We have narrowed the definition of inflation to such a degree that nothing is “inflation”…
Housing
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Charts, Economics, Housing, Lee's Free Thinking
Pending Home Sales Didn’t Really Miss
by Lee Adler • • 0 Comments
The news media reported yesterday that the NAR’s Pending Home Sales Index for December was a huge miss, falling far short of economists’ consensus expectations. This was based on the seasonally adjusted data, which is frequently misleading because the statistical manipulation often obscures the real trend. I reviewed the actual, not seasonally adjusted data. It…
Charts, Economics, Housing, Must Read
A Thousand Bucks Buys You a Lot of House Right Now | DepartmentofNumbers.com
by Newswires • • 0 Comments
From Department of Numbers The chart below shows the increasing amounts of money you’re able to borrow on a 30-year fixed rate mortgage with a $1,000 payment since 1971. I’ve been meaning to create this chart since I saw Matt Yglesias’ post last month on the buying power of $1,000 over the last few years. As…
Contributors- Economic and Financial, Housing, Must Read, Taken Down
US data: manufacturing activity remains weak; improvements seen in consumer confidence and resi construction- Sober Look
by Walter Kurtz • • 0 Comments
The Manufacturing ISM number did not surprise to the downside as Goldman’s GSAI was indicating (see discussion). The divergence between GSAI and the ISM has in fact widened, as the corporate sector exhibits a great deal of pessimism. Nevertheless US ma…
Charts, Economics, Email Bulletins Archive, Housing, Lee's Free Thinking, Must Read
Slow Growth in Single Family Housing Starts But Strong Multifamily Suggests A Boom That May Outpace Demand
by Lee Adler • • 0 Comments
Privately-owned housing starts in September were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 872,000. This is 15.0 percent (±12.1%) above the revised August estimate of 758,000 and is 34.8 percent (±18.2%) above the September 2011 rate of 647,000, according to the US Census Bureau. That was way above the median consensus economists’ expectations for…
Contributors- Economic and Financial, Housing, Must Read, Taken Down
Update on the Goldman housing index – Sober Look
by Walter Kurtz • • 0 Comments
Back in April, we discussed a very simple US housing market index developed by Goldman. The index basically looks at the percentage of US zipcodes that have experienced housing price appreciation (see discussion). Here is an update. Currently roughly 5…
Charts, Economics, Housing, Housing, Lee's Free Thinking, Must Read
Normal Seasonal Downtick Leaves New Home Sales 24% Ahead of Last Year
by Lee Adler • • 0 Comments
The Commerce Department’s actual, not seasonally adjusted, data for August dropped to 31,000 units from 34,000 in July. Such downticks are normal for the second half of the year. Sales totaled 25,000 units in August 2011. In the Wells Fargo- NAHB builders survey, builders reported improved sales and increased traffic in September. Both reached new…
Charts, Economics, Housing, Lee's Free Thinking, Must Read
Weekly Housing Indicators Show Price Gains Continuing, Supply Still Contracting
by Lee Adler •
The 30 day moving average of US house sales for the 30 days ended July 26 showed prices continuing to rise while sales volume declined for the first time since March, in data reported by Dataquick. There were 198,090 sales recorded for the period, versus 220,425 for the 30 days ended July 19. This represented a…
Charts, Economics, Email Bulletins Archive, Housing, Lee's Free Thinking, Must Read
Pending Home Sales Data Shows Activity Leveling Off- Is Tight Supply To Blame?
by Lee Adler •
Sales contracts for June (what the NAR refers to as “Pending Home Sales”) dipped slightly from the May peak. The month to month decline of an equivalent of approximately 3,000 sales was significantly weaker than June 2011’s gain of 23,600. This suggests that the demand recovery is leveling off. The Realtors are blaming it on…
Charts, Economics, Email Bulletins Archive, Housing, Housing, Lee's Free Thinking, Must Read
Media and Market Overreact As Usual to Weaker Housing Data
by Lee Adler •
The mainstream financial media breathlessly proclaimed the worst housing data in x months this morning, on the release of the Commerce Department’s monthly new home sales data. I won’t go into the details of the reporting, which you have seen by now. I’ll just give you the facts and let you decide for yourself how…
