Doug Noland- Credit Bubble Bulletin - The Wall Street Examiner

Meltup Persists, but Cycle Signals Point to Topping Process Ahead

The S&P 500 continued its sharp rally, bolstered by April’s massive Treasury paydowns. The surge has driven prices into upper channel resistances across short, intermediate, and long-term cycle frameworks. The rally remains intact, but multiple cycle indicators suggest the risk of reversal is rising. Here’s what to look for.

Liquidity Trader Swing Trade Selections and Performance – Taking, Not Swinging

As we get into the heart of baseball season, I’ve been in a slump, finding it difficult to catch up with the fastballs that the market has been tossing. This week, I saw only one pitch that I liked enough to take a swing. It was a buy in an out of favor sector, energy. I chose not to swing at buy signals that have already been on a run. Having been late on the first strike last month, now is not the time to become impatient and chase.

Don’t Go To Sleep On Gold

Gold’s trading range could engender a dangerous complacency.

The Art of the DOAD

This report stands out for one reason: Adler identifies what most overlook—and names it with precision. While mainstream commentary remains fixated on inflation data, Fed tone shifts, and the political cycle, this analysis drills into the structural mechanism driving liquidity risk: the Treasury General Account, its depletion, and its programmed rebuild.

U.S. Treasury Supply Update and Debt Ceiling Analysis: The Art of the DOAD

The Treasury is burning through cash at a rate that assures destruction by mid summer. Once the TGA hits that level, the debt ceiling must be lifted—or the U.S. government will default. This is the moment I refer to as DOAD: Do A Deal or Die.

Category: Doug Noland- Credit Bubble Bulletin