Can a PMI actually hit zero? We may be about to find out.
A crucial component of many commodity futures markets is a concept called roll yield. It relates to the shape of the curve and therefore how the market is discounting the three fundamental factors of supply, demand, and financing. Contango versus backwardation, there’s a lot to consider and even more at stake.Back in late October 2018, […]
History as well as common sense dictates heavy caution when it comes to the monetary puppet show.
On March 2, the Bank of Japan leapt into the stock market, Haruhiko Kuroda burnishing his Superman cape as he flew in to rescue the Nikkei. Purchasing a record amount of ETF’s that day, shares in Tokyo surged. It was a clear message, or so everyone thought. Don’t fight the Fed nor the Bank of […]
Questioning the veracity of Chinese estimates (for anything) has always been something of an amateur sport. For a stat like real GDP, everyone “knows” that it is managed. In a complex world where an economic system for a billion and a half is incomprehensibly unpredictable, there’s really no other way to always hit your government’s […]
The economic shutdown is an artificial dislocation, a non-economic factor that is interrupting regular activity and business for non-economic reasons. But is it overlaid on a pre-existing downturn making the pandemic effects worse?
Concerns about the economy have overtaken concerns about the virus. That’s the conclusion reached by a series of polls conducted at fivethirtyeight.com. According to their surveys, Americans remain very concerned about the pandemic to start with. Thirty-eight percent say that, up from about 18% back at the beginning of March.In terms of the economy, 57% […]
It’s nothing more than pedigree, having little to do with actual performance. Central bankers are given a level of respect and even admiration suited only to their job title. As such, they travel the world as honored guests to fulfill the insatiable demand for their takes on essential matters no matter how far off the […]
Another day, another new Federal Reserve “bailout.” As these things go by, quickly, the details become less important. What is the central bank doing today? Does it really matter?For me, twice was enough. All the way back in 2010 I had expected other people to react as I did to QE2. If you have to […]
Way to go, fellas. The FOMC minutes for the crucial March 2020 meeting further make a mockery of everything the central bank should stand for. Nowadays, the Federal Reserve is thought about in terms of its inflation and employment mandates. Nothing whatsoever to do with the monetary system, at least not directly. That’s the way […]
