James Howard Kunstler - The Wall Street Examiner

Liquidity Trader Swing Trade Selections and Performance – Five Shorts, Three Longs: Signals Sharpen After the Whiplash

This rally has been a grinder. Since it began, setups have been harder to trust, in a market driven more by headlines than structure. I’ve been too cautious, as short-term waves reversed with near unprecedented ferocity. But the charts are starting to look more normal. This week, I found five shorts I liked and 3 longs. This is still cycle-based with rigorous questioning of setups, while finding more that I’m comfortable adding to the list.

Cycle Model Provides Top Signal Requirements in Face of Persistent Meltup

The market is still riding a powerful meltup, and short and intermediate-term cycle projections are pointing even higher than they were last week. The Moody’s downgrade has triggered a pullback this morning, but the selloff must follow through to break trend. Otherwise, the index remains on course for potential exhaustion targets above xxxx—even as the Cycle Wave Composite and long-term structures warn that this remains a topping process.

Synthetic Liquidity, Structural Risk 5/17/25

The current Macro Liquidity Report lays out the mechanics behind the current rally and the conditions that will reverse it. T-bill paydowns have injected over…

Synthetic QE vs. Liquidity Cliff: The Clock Is Ticking

This report outlines the dangerous game now unfolding: artificial liquidity abundance from Treasury debt limit management policy, masking the structural change just ahead.

Meltup Persists, but Cycle Signals Point to Topping Process Ahead

The S&P 500 continued its sharp rally, bolstered by April’s massive Treasury paydowns. The surge has driven prices into upper channel resistances across short, intermediate, and long-term cycle frameworks. The rally remains intact, but multiple cycle indicators suggest the risk of reversal is rising. Here’s what to look for.

Author: James Howard Kunstler