Regional Surveys from Philly, NY, Texas and Chicago are all at levels previously indicative of a recession. The lone false signal was the Texas General Business Activity Index in January 2016…the weakness was regionally isolated as the price of oil went from over $100/bbl in 2014 to around $30/bbl by early 2016. No region has […]
A one year, educational look back through the lens of Super Bowl commercials. The economy was awash in liquidity. Behavior had changed. Would trends continue? Would behavior revert? The Fed’s first rate hike would occur roughly one month later. H/T Steve Beiser. Last year’s Super Bowl commercials – if you invested $10k when they aired […]
Monthly closing price for SPY on the 1st day for the month from 2 years prior to a market high to 3 years after that top. The data points are indexed to the starting point 24 months before the market top. I know, I know, it’s different this time. It’s always different. Different is not […]
