The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2018 is 4.8 percent on June 14, up from 4.6 percent on June 8.
The US Treasury 10Y-2Y slope keeps falling … as The Fed keeps raising their target rate.
Like the Limbo Rock, the US Treasury 10Y-2Y slope continues to see how low it will go.
As expected, The Federal Reserve raised their target rate (upper bound) to 2%.
At 2pm today, The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) will likely raise its target rate. According to the implied probabilities, there is an 84% chance of a rate hike. With another rate increase, the interest rate on excess reserves rises as well. In other words, The Fed is paying banks more interest NOT to.
Mel Watt and the FHFA (the regulatory body, not a funk band) have issued a proposed rule on how much capital Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac should have to protect taxpayers from losses.
The monthly inflation report is out.
Core CPI “inflation” increased to 2.2% YoY.
While real average hourly earnings were flat (as in 0% growth).
Core CPI smoothed over different lags shows an interesting pattern.
Hopefully The Fed doesn&…
There was a fascinating movie from 2012 about surfing Mavericks, a spot just north of Half Moon Bay in California, notable for 25-50 foot waves in the winter. Mavericks attracts the more risk-taking surfers. But housing isn’t surfing.
One of these indicators isn’t like the other one. Take Citi’s Macro Surprise Index for the US and compare it to the NASDAQ index and The Fed Funds Target Rate
Yes, between Italy’s political problems and trade turbulence, the US Treasury 10Y-2Y curve is goin’ down. In fact, it is the flattest since September 17, 2007.
And the 10-year Treasury term premium remains negative.
I wonder why the US is…