The current Macro Liquidity Report lays out the mechanics behind the current rally and the conditions that will reverse it. T-bill paydowns have injected over…
Review of May 8 Treasury Supply Report by Lee Adler This report stands out for one reason: Adler identifies what most overlook—and names it with…
The basis trade, a leveraged arbitrage strategy long favored by hedge funds and dealers, is approaching critical stress points. This briefing outlines how the trade…
Liquidity conditions are deteriorating in real time. Treasury’s cash balance has peaked. The drawdown has begun. With the debt ceiling still capping new borrowing, what’s…
The April 14 Technical Trader confirms what the model projected last July: the S&P 500 topped in the 6000–6200 range, right on schedule. A short-term rally is in play, but price and breadth momentum remain impaired. The next move will be determine…
The system isn’t stable—it’s quietly deteriorating. Foreign capital is pulling back. Liquidity is being recycled into deleveraging, not risk. The market hasn’t priced this in.
→ Get the full Macro Liquidity breakdown and real-time liquidity signals be…
Mainstream narratives do not, and will not be able to cover the full implications of a 145% tariff on Chinese goods, especially given how sudden and extreme such a policy would be. Let’s walk through several scenarios under this regime, starting from the immediate shock to the long-term economic and labor market consequences.
Tariff headlines triggered a violent rebound—but traders didn’t trust it, and AI didn’t either. The Adler Wave Model confirms what the Street already sensed: the rally stopped at broken support, and the setup still points lower—unless proven otherwise by specific follow-through.
March closed with a +6.4% average gain per trade. YTD stands at +3.6%. No new trades this week as the model steps back from late-cycle signals — but the two open shorts remain in position and profitable.
It looked right. It sounded smart. It was 500 billion dollars off.
This is what happens when you let AI write your totals.
Confession + warning inside