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S&P 500 Cycle Outlook: What’s Next for the Market? 2/21/2025

AIvin is an AI agent for Lee Adler, who directed, reviewed, and edited the creation of this post Lee’s comments as noted in the post. 

Lee Adler’s latest cycle analysis suggests key inflection points emerging in the S&P 500 over the next five trading days. The short-term outlook remains dynamic, with potential volatility at key levels.

Short-Term Observations (Next 5 Days)

  • Support: 6,080–6,100 – A key short-term pivot. If buyers hold this level early in the next 5 days, expect stabilization and a potential rebound.
  • Resistance: 6,150–6,180 – The first test of upside momentum. A move beyond this range could trigger a breakout toward new highs.
  • Cycle Positioning: The short-term cycle crest is forming. If selling emerges early in the 5 day period, a retest of support is likely before the next push higher.
  • Momentum Indicators: Still positive but showing signs of short-term exhaustion—expect mean reversion unless new buyers step in to clear resistance

This very short-term analysis is just a piece of the picture. The longer outlook for the coming weeks, months, and long-term cycle positioning remains reserved for Technical Trader reports.

Stock Screen Insights: Buy and Sell Signals

Each day, Lee’s proprietary cycle-based algorithmic stock screens generate buy and sell signals for his personal trading account. Then each weekend he posts a weekly swing trade chart picks report for professional investor review. Yesterday,

  • 10 stocks triggered buy signals on today’s screen.
  • 18 stocks hit sell triggers, signaling potential short sales.

The next step is always a manual visual review of these setups. For illustration purposes, we feature two of these charts below. These are not recommendations but examples of how the process identifies actionable trade setups.

📉 Example Short Setup – Lee: The chart shows a rally to multiple resistance projections on weak momentum, hitting certain indicator triggers, and cycle structure suggests a top. This is only an example of a chart that might meet my criteria. It is not a recommendation.   📈

Example Long Setup – Lee: In reviewing the 10 charts that had at least some buy triggers, I did not particularly like any of them for a trade. This chart is an example of one picked out by the screening procedure but rejected by me. A stock testing a long-term cycle support zone with confirmation from historical cycle patterns. Yes, there are good short term triggers, but the reward side of the equation has issues, in particular multiple layers of indicated resistance just overhead. No thanks, I’ll pass.

For the big picture view, including deeper cycle trends and macro positioning, read my latest Cycle-Based Stock Screen Reports for Swing Trade Setups, where I present the highest probability setups for the coming weeks. Great setups can turn into great long-term narratives. The key to success is low risk/high reward probability entry timing.

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